“Regime change in Iran is good for Israel but Operation Rising Lion had different objectives”
The ceasefire between Iran and Israel, following a 12-day military confrontation between the two is currently holding. Yet, it remains a fragile ceasefire. While Israel had hoped to destroy Iran’s nuclear program, that is still being analyzed and debated. Neither did Israel’s other objective – regime change – materialize. To understand Israel’s perspective, Mark Kinra spoke to Dr. Jonathan Ghariani, a visiting post-doctoral scholar at Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies and the coordinator of the Morocco-Israel Policy Forum.
Excerpts:
Why, do you think, Israel initiated military campaign against Iran on the eve of another round of US-Iran dialogue and the scheduled internationalconferenceon Gaza in France?
Initially, Israel supported, albeit with strong reservations, the United States’ decision to seek a diplomatic solution to Iran’s nuclear program, despite Prime Minister Netanyahu’s significant reservations about the likelihood of successful negotiations. However, the discussions ultimately reached an impasse as the Iranian regime remained steadfast in their position on nuclear enrichment, showing no willingness to compromise. The Iranian foreign minister stated that Iran will continue uranium enrichment and were weeks away from producing nine nuclear bombs. The Israeli Air Force launched Operation Rising Lion, conducting pre-emptive strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities to cripple their nuclear capabilities, degrade their ballistic missile program, and weaken the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps and regime.
What are the views of different Israel political parties on the Israel-Iran war?
Unlike the Gaza conflict, all Zionist political parties support military action against Iran. Over 70% of Israelis, including 83% of Jewish Israelis, back this action, while 65% of Arab Israelis oppose it.
Israel’s primary objective is to incapacitate the military capabilities of its adversaries and remove Hamas from power in the Gaza Strip. It is evident that Israel is fully prepared to engage with and dismantle what the Iranian regime refers to as the “ring of fire,” a strategy aimed at surrounding Israel with hostile terror proxies, known in Israel as the “seven fronts war.” As we approach the second year of this conflict, significant progress has been made.
Israel has substantially weakened the Iranian axis, also known as the axis of resistance. Hezbollah, which prior to Operation Pager posed a major strategic threat with elite forces positioned near the Israeli border and a formidable arsenal of 150,000 to 200,000 rockets and ballistic missiles, has seen its capabilities significantly diminished. Operation Pager resulted in the elimination of Hezbollah’s top leadership, including its leader Hassan Nasrallah and his successor. A substantial portion of Hezbollah’s arsenal has been destroyed, leading to an unprecedented declaration by Hezbollah that they would not join Iran in waging war against Israel. This achievement also contributed to the collapse of the Assad regime, a key ally of Tehran.
Regarding Hamas, its military wing has been significantly weakened; however, the group still maintains control over the Gaza Strip, and the hostages have yet to be released.
What is Israel’s end game from this war, is it regime change?
Israel has three main objectives in this operation.
• Destroy all Iranian nuclear Uranium enrichment facilities.
• Cripple their ballistic missile program.
• Stop Iranian military support and funding to its terror proxies.
In that regards Israel is conducting a series of Air Strikes against all Iranian nuclear facilities. Under President Trump order the United States also assisted Israel in targeting the Fordow Uranium enrichment facilities as well as Natanz and Ispahan using 6 B2 strategic bombers equipped with Massive Bunker buster bomb also knownas MOP Massive Ordnance penetrator. A total of 12 GBU57 launched from B2 bombers targeted Fordow. 2 GBU 57 were launched against Natanz and finally 30 BGM 109 Tomahawk missiles were launched from US submarines striking Ispahan nuclear facility. Israel has significantly degraded Iranian air defence systems MostIRGC top brass commanders have been decapitated in surgical air strikes. The Israeli air force is also targeting ballistic missile launchers, Iranian drones, fighter jets, and combat helicopters. A significant portion of the Iranian Air Force comprises older US-built fighter jets such as the F-4 and F-5, which were delivered during the Shah of Iran’s rule in the 1970s and 1980s. Additionally, Iran’s fleet includes the more advanced F-14 Tomcats. In 1990, Iran acquired Russian-built MiG-29s and Su-24s directly from the Soviet Union and subsequently from Russia. Following the 1991 Gulf War, Iran also received various fighter jets and attack aircraft from fleeing Iraqi pilots, which included MiG-29s, Su-22s, Su-24s, and French-built Mirage F1s. Iran also obtained the Chinese copy of the Mig 21 the Chengdu F7.
While a regime change in Iran would be a welcomed development and a desired outcome for Israel, it is not among the objectives of Operation Rising Lion.
Do you think Israel will honour the ceasefire and what do you think Israel has achieved from the recent skirmish?
Israel honored the ceasefire agreement and refrained from retaliating after an Iranian missile caused significant damage to an apartment building in the southern Israeli city of Beersheba, resulting in the deaths of five individuals and injuring many others. The Israeli Homefront was severely impacted by a massive barrage of Iranian missiles, which led to the deaths of 24 Israeli civilians and injured 833 more. Unlike previous instances of missile strikes, the Iranian regime targeted Israeli population centers rather than military targets, such as air bases. Israel has successfully achieved its primary objective of crippling the Iranian nuclear program and its ballistic missile capabilities.
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