Dragon’s Long Shadow in Bangladesh

India seems to have completely lost the plot in Bangladesh and China seems to have stepped into the country with a vengeance. What will surely surprise  many in Delhi who had wished the new Bangladesh National Party (BNP) government would reverse the hostile anti-Indian postures of Interim Government chief adviser Muhammad Yunus is that foreign minister Khalilur Rahman,  widely seen as an US Deep State asset piloted the recent visit of Prime Minister Tarique Rahman to China. Khalilur Rahman is following on Pakistan’s footsteps , staying close to both US and China.

The US , unhappy with India’s refusal to join the anti-China bandwagon,  might have actually okayed Tarique Rahman’s visit to China to set alarm bells ringing in Delhi , so that the Modi government is compelled to turn totally towards Washington to counteract Chinese advances in South Asia. That explains President Donald Trump’s G7 time assurance to Prime Minister Narendra Modi that ” We are always there for India.”  And now it seems the ploy is working because Delhi is truly worried as the Tarique government seems to have jettisoned India’s security anxieties to reach out for China’s deep pockets to finance some of its high-priority infrastructure projects.

There is no doubt  Tarique Rahman has secured nothing short of a jackpot during his recent five-day visit to China.

Apart from Chinese promises to help Bangladesh out with effective management of the Teesta river (dredging-water storage-embankment), the first time Prime Minister has secured promises of substantial Chinese private sectors investment .

Eleven Chinese companies have proposed to invest 9.21 billion dollars in Bangladesh in the next few years, sources in the Bangladesh Investment Development Authority (BIDA) told this writer.

The CEOs of these different companies met up Prime Minister Tarique Rahman on June 25 in Beijing. The BIDA

 Chairman , Ashik Chowdhury, whi was present during this meeting , made a detailed presentation to the Chinese CEOs on the investment climate in Bangladesh. He specially pointed to incentives like five-year tax holidays for foreign investors .

BIDA sources later provided details of the Chinese private sector investment commitments.

* China Future Energy Group Holding Limited, specialized in petroleum engineering and gas field investment, proposed to invest USD 250 million to rxplore and development of gas fields.

* Shanghai SUS Environment Co, Ltd, one of the world’s leading WTE investors and operators, has proposed to invest USD 890 million to develop of Waste-to-Energy (WTE) plants.

* China Civil Engineering Construction Corporation (CCECC), a Chinese state owned contractor, investor, operator, has proposed to invest USD 650 million to develop and operate the Mongla Port Economic Zone to attract Chinese manufacturing industries, build bond warehouses for storing imports . This can turn Mongla into a new logistics hub, and create upto 50000 jobs. Interestingly , this project was earmarked for an Indian special economic zone by the Sheikh Hasina government but was later delisted by the Yunus-led interim regime, citing delays in implementation because Indian firms failed to start work within the stipulated two-year period. In fact, the Yunus administration had also delisted another designated special economic zone for India at Mirsarai in Chittagong and decided to use the place for developing a military production facility.

* Shenzhen Kaifa Technology Co. Ltd. has proposed to invest USD 250 million to manufacture Electric smart Meters in Bangladesh.

* SF Express, China’s largest logistics company, has proposed to invest USD 180 million in cold chain logistics and bonded warehouse facilities in Mongla to support e-commerce and export industries.

* Huaxin Textile Industry Co. Ltd, has proposed to invest USD 190 million for expansion of recycled cotton/yarn production, manufacture of cylindrical lithium battery, building 200 MW solar power plant for own use in Payra Port Industrial Zone.

* Zhongxin Environmental Protection Group has proposed in invest USD 1650 million for establishment of an E-waste recycling and disposal industrial project in Payra Port Industrial Zone.

* CRRC Ziyan Co. Ltd has proposed to invest USD 190 million to establish of a rolling stock assembly plant through a joint venture with BMTF.

* Sichuan Road & Bridge Group Co. Ltd. has proposrd to invest USD 4500 million for investment in the Dhaka-Chattogram Highway as Public-Private Partnership (PPP) Project to enhance national connectivity and economic growth.

* China Kepai Education Group has proposed USD 270 million to build a modern application-oriented university and vocational education industrial park desiged to accomodate 30,000 students in the long run.

* China Shandong Zhongxin Pharmaceutical Co. Limited has proposed to invest USD 190 million to establish large-scale Chinese Medicinal Herb Cultivation Industry in Bangladesh.

The enormity of these promised investments becomes clear when one looks at how much foreign private investment has come to Bangladesh in recent years. The country in the last two years has received net inflows of just $1.77 billion.

Bangladesh’s total stock of Foreign Direct Investment now stands at approximately $18.5 to $20 billion, with the majority of inflows driven by reinvested earnings and loans rather than new fresh equity. The recent surge in investment was fueled by reinvested earnings ($434 million) and intra-company loans ($782 million), while fresh equity capital remained mostly stagnant at $554 million. The United Kingdom, Singapore, South Korea, China, and the Netherlands account for the largest shares of total FDI stock in the country.

China also has plans to develop a network of 1000-bed superspeciality hospitals in towns like Nilphamari or Sylhet on or not far from the borders with India. ” It appears China intends to reduce Bangladesh’s dependence on India as a medical treatment destination . Since these hospitals are planned as gifts to Bangladesh, the purpose sounds more strategic than business,” said Kolkata medical prpfessional Parthasharati Datta.

Indian intelligence officials say the planned Chinese investments are as much strategic as business. While they suspect the planned hospitals like Nilphamari could also double up as covert intelligence outposts, Chinese projects in two of Bangladesh’s ports, Payra and Mongla coukd end up boosting Beijing’s presence on the Bangladesh coast . They also nicely align to the Chinese Economic and Industrial Zone (CEIZ) in Anwara in the the country’s major port city of Chittagong. The Anwara Zone is a government-to-government (G2G) project recentky fast-tracked with a Taka 4,189 crore development budget.

 The 800-acre hub is developed by the Bangladesh Economic Zones Authority (BEZA) and China Road and Bridge Corporation (CRBC) to attract export-oriented manufacturing and create tens of thousands of jobs.

These investments on the Bangladesh coasts are not far from the China-funded deep sea port of Kyaukphyu in Myanmar’s Rakhine province A refinery and an oil-gas pipeline from Kyaukphyu to Yunnan (southwestern China) makes up the basic contour of the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor, one of Beijing’s critical land-to-sea access to bypass the Malacca chokepoint.

Two senior Chinese academics connected to top thinktanks in Yunnan told this writer on condition of anonymity that Beijing clearly intends to extend the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor to Bangladesh as part of its larger Maritime Belt and Road Initiative to boost its Indian Ocean presence.

That is something that Delhi will be surely  alarmed .  Washington will be also closing watching,  mainly to use Delhi’s worries to get it totally on its side , specially to influence the outcome of the Burmese civil war to block the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor and stifle Beijing’s intended land-to-sea access to the Indian Ocean.  China’s stated desire during the Tarique Rahman visit to Beijing to expand the China-Myanmar Corridor to Bangladesh does not augur well for US ambitions to locate a military base on the Bangladesh coast.