Why Has Pakistan Reignited Conflict With Afghanistan Now?
The growing alignment between Kabul and Delhi is a redline for Islamabad.
By Aditi Bhaduri
Renewed violence has broken out between Pakistan and the Taliban, after a couple of months of relative calm, and just when a thaw had begun. On 22 February Pakistan conducted air strikes in the border regions of Paktika and Nangarhar. These, it said, were in response to a series of attacks and suicide bombings inside Pakistan. Some were claimed by ISIS-KP (Islamic State – Khorasan Province). Clashes resumed on Wednesday night in the Khyber border region, with exchanges of heavy gunfire at multiple points.
Pakistan claimed that both the ISIS-KP and factions of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) had been behind the attacks, and were operating from Afghan territory and the strikes were to flush out terrorists. It claimed that about 70 terrorists had been killed in these operations. The Taliban, however, alleged that the strikes had killed civilians, mostly women and children, and destroyed civilian infrastructure. It also said that it would retaliate to Pakistan ‘s “provocations” at an appropriate time.
At the time of writing the Taliban had announced that they had begun large-scale offensive against Pakistani military outposts along the Durand Line, which included the use of Afghan airforce.
Islamabad has repeatedly alleged that militant groups operate from Afghanistan territory. The Taliban deny this claim. It has consistently maintained that it would not allow Afghan soil to be used against any other country and continues to deny the presence of armed groups operating freely within the country. It points out the total closure of the border impeded even the movement of goods, let alone people and militants; Pakistan’s allegations were, hence, impossible. Such claims and counter-claims have become routine. The Taliban also say that Pakistan has furnished no proof of such claims.
Nevertheless, the timing of Pakistan’s attacks came at a particularly consequential time. Relative peace had prevailed following a ceasefire brokered by Qatar and Turkiye after the October hostilities which had broken out between the two in a similar manner and on the same pretext. In fact, just a few days before Pakistan’s operations, the Taliban had returned some captured Pakistani soldiers to Pakistan, while Pakistan had allowed some Afghan goods to be transported to its warehouses. It seemed that bilateral ties were on a mend when Pakistan struck.
On the other hand, Pakistan has been embroiled in an ever escalating and a ruthless conflict with Baloch separatist groups. The region is also bracing itself for a US attack on Iran, which many believe is imminent.
What was the trigger for such action?
Surely, Pakistan knew that the Taliban would not let aby attacks, especially coming on thd heels of such confidence building measures would not go unresponded to by the Taliban, shattering the fragile peace, and leading to greater regional instability?
For one, the renewed conflict helps focus attention away from Pakistan’s inability to ensure internal security.
Secondly, Pakistan maybe looking for a regime change in Kabul to regain strategic depth there. As it’s relations with Kabul have deteriorated , Kabul has turned to India and the Central Asian states.
The growing alignment between Kabul and Delhi is a redline for Islamabad. Though India has not officially recognised the Taliban, it has allowed the group to reopen the Afghan embassy in Delhi and has allowed a Taliban Charge de Affairs there. It has also upgraded it’s representation in Kabul from a “technical mission” to full-fledged embassy.
Last year India officially hosted three Taliban ministers in quick succession and has doubled down on humanitarian aid and trade with Afghanistan.
Meanwhile, Pakistan continues to allege that the TTP, and Baloch groups, backed by India is behind all terrorist attacks in Pakistan.
It has now launched an “all out war” on Afghanistan in Operation Ghazab lil Haq (Righteous Fury).
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