What would a Biden administration’s approach to Af-Pak be?
Pakistan will face increased pressure from USA to guarantee the safety of its nuclear arsenal during the Biden presidency, and also take further action against terror groups based within its borders that are targeting India.
By Adithyan Nair
The United States recently has witnessed a political changeover from a republican government to a democratic one. After Donald Trump’s reign, the country is expected to experience a liberal form of government. Joe Biden is said to assume his presidential position on January 20th 2021 and the country is yet to see if he is the answer to resuscitate a liberal America.
The country is expected to face a huge change in policy making, especially in the military aspects. The major political power players across the globe are keen on observing USA’s potential policy changes in Afghanistan and Pakistan after Biden assumes the oval office. This article will talk about the implications that the new US government will have on the Afghan-Pak policy.
The US-Taliban Peace Agreement
On 29th February this year the Trump administration signed the The Peace Agreement with the Taliban. According to the agreement, also known as the Doha Accords Trump promised to withdraw troops from Afghanistan which would allow the Taliban to determine what kind of society should now be created.
Afghan officials have warned such a move could plunge their country further into upheaval and would serve as a signal to the Taliban that they need not honor their commitments. There has been pressure on the Biden administration regarding the of withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan. The Taliban in Afghanistan have urged US President-elect Joe Biden to stay committed to the Doha peace accord with the group, signed during the Donald Trump administration.
Biden Administration and Pakistan
Biden’s presence in the White House can help the foreign policy establishment in Islamabad forge new partnerships with Washington based on the two nation’s mutual geopolitical and economic interests. The Biden administration is also expected to be more critical of human rights violations, media censorship and mistreatment of minorities in Pakistan. In 2019 and again more recently this year, the US placed Pakistan on the blacklist of countries that violate religious freedoms. Biden will continue to pressure Islamabad to make improvements in this area.
In an brief written by former Pakistani diplomat Professor Touqir Hussain, who is now a visiting Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of South Asian Studies on 9th November 2020, outlines Biden’s role during the Obama administration in the reduction of the threat of nuclear weapons, Pakistan will face increased pressure from USA to guarantee the safety of its nuclear arsenal during the Biden presidency. The Biden administration will also expect further action from Pakistan against terror groups based within its borders that are targeting India.
Despite these pressures, US-Pakistan relations will likely have a positive trajectory in the Biden era – if the ongoing Afghan peace process results in a permanent and comprehensive ceasefire and a power-sharing agreement between the Taliban and the Afghan government.
Biden’s role in Obama administration’s on Afga-Pak
Although Obama, following Bush, made election promises to end all wars, he later after a re-appraisal of the situation, crafted his own Af-Pak strategy which was vividly described in Bob Woodward’s book, Obama’s War. The strategy described Pakistan and Afghanistan as two countries but one problem and emphasised on setting the calculus of Pakistan right. In addition to that his focus was on Asia Pacific to counter China. According to the book, Biden was a pivotal figure in devising and implementing Obama’s strategy, which resulted in an increase in the number of US armed personnel being deployed in Afghanistan for counter terrorism purposes. As such, Obama’s strategies may have deep imprints on Biden when he assumes presidency. In Woodward’s book, the then vice-president, Biden, in his meeting told Pakistan’s president about Obama’s thinking: “Afghanistan is going to be his war, and we cannot fix Afghanistan without Pakistan’s help.” Biden further stated that American success would depend on Pakistan, and US taxpayers would not support assistance to Pakistan if the Taliban and Al Qaeda continued to operate from Pakistani sanctuaries to kill US soldiers and plot attacks. He also described Al Qaeda, the impetus of war in Afghanistan, as Pakistan’s problem, obviously a reflection of hardened views, always negated by Pakistan.
Implications for the Af-Pak Region
The strategic move that can be expected from the Biden administration is unclear until he assumes office. Will the strategic moves, that can be expected from the Biden administration be a perpetuation of the predecessor Obama administration? Or Is the Biden administration going to introduce a new set of measures that will be more effective to handle the current situation?
If the intra-Afghan talks derail, and the conflict reignites, however, US-Pakistan relations will take a hit. In such a scenario, Biden will be more supportive of the Afghan government than his predecessor, and will likely put increased pressure on Pakistan to convince the Taliban to end hostilities. This does not mean the signing of a power-sharing agreement in Afghanistan would guarantee smooth relations between Islamabad and Washington. Under a Biden presidency, the withdrawal of the US from Afghanistan will be gradual and conditional, and Washington will likely have some presence in the country for a long time. This could lead to renewed tensions with Islamabad.
