A new security paradigm in the Gulf region
It is clear to analysts and observers of the region that after decades of depending and outsourcing its security concerns to its Western allies – primarily the US – the Gulf countries are having a rethink and coming into their own as far as international diplomacy and the security architecture of the region is concerned.
Photo: Twitter/Narendra Modi
By Aditi Bhaduri
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent visit to Bahrain came amidst much fanfare and interest. Bilateral trade between the two countries stands at $1.28 billion, with an increase by 20 percent over the last two years. Invest Bahrain is looking to invest $500 million USD into India and India’s ONGC Videsh Ltd, signed an expression of interest for joint exploration in the in the newly discovered tight oil and shale gas reserves in Khaleej al Bahrain basin.
This was Modi’s first visit – the first ever by an Indian Prime Minister to the kingdom – to the region since taking office as prime minster for a second consecutive term. His trip included both the UAE, from where he arrived in Bahrain. In Abu Dhabi he was honoured with the Order of Zayed, the UAE’s highest civilian order, and introduced the RuPay card – India’s response to Master and Visa cards.
In Bahrain too he was conferred with that country’s highest honour – the King Hamad Order of Rennaiscance. Bahrain’s Undersecretary for International Affairs at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Dr. Shaikh Abdallah Al Khalifa called Modi’s visit of “exceptional importance” to the Kingdom.
For Modi the trip came at an extremely opportune moment – he was facing opposition at home, unflattering international press, and tensions with Pakistan sharply increased following his recent and bold move to reorganise and bifurcate the state of Jammu and Kashmir – India’s only Muslim majority state – and strip it of its privileges.
With the UAE and Bahrain – two powerful Sunni states which have significant clout over Pakistan, as over much of the Muslim world – extending him such a welcome was extremely valuable – both in terms of diplomacy and for India’s case on Kashmir, which Pakistan has been trying to internationalise for a while. By hosting Modi both countries not only made their position clear that it was a domestic matter and relations with Pakistan were to be dealt with bilaterally between India and Pakistan.
But why did Bahrain – and the UAE – for that matter give Modi this cover?
No doubt, such visits are decided days in advance and it probably was a stroke of good luck that the timing turned out to be soon after Modi’s Kashmir move when Pakistan was majorly playing spoiler, trying to drum up diplomatic pressure on India to revoke its decision, suspending diplomatic and trade relations, and even taking the matter to the UN security council. On Friday, August 31, Pakistan also marked Kashmir Day.
Nevertheless, the Gulf states have their own reasons for wanting to provide Modi this cover. Here the words of Abdul Nabi Al Shola, Bahrain’s former Minister for Labour, are revealing. In an article in Bahrain’s The Daily Tribune welcoming the visit of the prime minister, he wrote “Bahrain had a very long relationship with India and we are doing extremely good when it comes to Cultural trade and commercial relationships.” But, he added, “it is time for us to make vital relationship by cooperating in areas related to security and defence.”
It is clear to analysts and observers of the region that after decades of depending and outsourcing its security concerns to its Western allies – primarily the US – the Gulf countries are having a rethink and coming into their own as far as international diplomacy and the security architecture of the region is concerned.
The rivalry with Iran and the Shia country’s widening footprint in the region has forced the countries to hedge their bets.
For all the countries of the powerful Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries regime survival is the top priority and much of their defence is geared up to that end. Iran’s backing of political Islam, and its increasing closeness with Sunni Turkey and Qatar who back the Muslim brotherhood is ominous for the GCC countries, all of whom are primarily Sunni but with pocket of Shia population.
If during the Syrian civil war it was then US president Obama’s who dithered and refused to decisively intervene to overthrow the regime of Bashar Al Assad as the GCC would have wished for, then now it has been the season for President Trump to dither as tensions escalated in the Gulf region between the GCC states like UAE and Saudi Arabia and Iran on the other hand. Iranian foreign minister Jawed Zarif’s presence at the G7 summit recently also did not bode well for them. In Yemen, the Iranian backed rebels are gaining in strength, with increasingly bolder attacks at targets inside Saudi Arabia. In Sudan, President Bashir who had been propped up with GCC money has been overthrown, while a stalemate persists in Libya. Iran is also increasing its influence in Iraq, and its proxies are strewn across the region.
For long now countries across the Middle East have been scouting for non-western allies. Whether Israel, the Middle East’s only democracy, or Sunni Kingdom of Saudi Arabia or Shia Iran, the region has increasingly been looking east – Russia, China, India, South Korea.
Against such a backdrop its becomes easier to forge ties wtih India given the country’s closeness and proximity to the Gulf region, with ties dating back centuries, strengthened especially during the British raj. The modern Gulf’s development occurred on the backs of South Asian labour. The allure of Indian labor increased after the second gulf war – Indians were good workers, kept a low profile, demanded lower wages and harboured no political ambitions in their host countries, unlike many Arab and non-Arab Muslim workers. In turn this labour pool became one of the leading sources of hefty foreign remittances back to India.
Increasingly India with its growing economic clout, and currently the world’s third largest energy consumer,which exports 80% of its energy requirements has become a coveted market and an attractive destination for investments from the GCC. Abu Dhabi’s ADNOC became the first foreign company to build strategic oil reserves in India. In turn India has also emerged a source of FDI into these countries. Soon after Modi’s announcement of his Kashmir move, Saudi Aramco signed a $15 billion USD agreement with India’s Reliance Industries Ltd. Acknowledgement of India’s other achievements are also reflected in the agreements signed between India and Bahrain for cooperation in outer space and in space technology.
But more importantly, the region has also been increasing cooperation with India in defence and counter-terrorism, since 9/11, deepened after the Mumbai 2008 attacks, with joint naval exercises, and intelligence sharing.
Spooked by the increasing sectarian rift and conflicts in the region, especially the rise of the Sunni terror group Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) which has vowed to change the status quo in the region, even targeting the Saudi kingdom, and which, by most estimates, remains far from being vanquished, the Gulf states all have a stake in engendering pluralism, tolerance to blunt the religious radicalism that had been harboured and stoked across the region for decades.
Bahrain in particular in invested in this, as a Sunni regime rules over a large Shia population. The kingdom also has been playing a greater diplomatic role in the region’s politics. It hosted recently the workshop on an economic peace plan mooted by Jared Kushner, the son in law of President Trump, to settle the decades-long conflict between Israel and the Palestinians. Raising many eyebrows, the kingdom also issued visas for Israeli journalists to travel there to cover the workshop. Bahrain has no diplomatic relations with Israel. Furthermore, its foreign minister Khalid bin Ahmed Al Khalifa also invited flak from rivals Turkey and Qatar when in an interview to Israeli journalists he affirmed the existence of Israel and its acknowledgement by the kingdom, wishing “better relations and eventually ‘peace’ with Israel” which was “a part of the [Middle East] region and “there to stay”; soon after its embassy in Baghdad was targeted by alleged supporters of Iran. The kingdom, like other GCC states, has been cultivating ties with Israel, as both have a common enemy in Iran.
Therefore, it is not surprising that India, the third largest energy consumer in the world, with its galloping economy, fourth largest army in the world, and a responsible nuclear power, is a coveted partner for states in the region it considers to be its extended neighbourhood. India has long signed strategic partnership with the UAE and has robust defence, security, and counter-terrorism cooperation with the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Oman. Bahrain is the latest country, with a security dialogue already underway with India. The joint statement signed between the two sides confirmed their “condemnation of terrorism in all its forms and manifestations, regardless of the identity of the perpetrators and their motives, and they agreed to further enhance cooperation in the field of security, counter-terrorism and the exchange of intelligence and information. The two sides also exchanged views on regional and international issues of mutual interest.”
The issue, therefore, is not one of the Gulf states turning a blind eye to Kashmir, it is that none in the region really wish to see the emergence of yet another entity which can be a centre of radical Islam. And Modi, with his resounding electoral victory, comes across as a strong leader, something the Gulf states have taken note of.
