Myanmar Civil War To Continue, New Govt Not Keen On Dialogue
It now becomes clear that Aung San Suu Kyi’s refusal to back General Min Aung Hlaing’s bid for Presidency had led to the military coup in February 2021. Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy ( NLD) had swept the parliament polls in late 2021 and was all set to form the government for the second time .
By Subir Bhaumik
Myanmar’s festering civil war will not end anytime soon. The new military-backed government of the Union Solidarity & Development Party ( USDP) has assumed office but so far given no indication of any outreach to the battling rebel armies , which have overrun huge swathes of territory in the last two years.
The situation is further complicated by Myanmar military supremo Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, who stepped down as army chief as he prepared to take over as President .
Before he did that, General Hlaing put in place a new look military leadership that is as hardline as himself. Since the new government is completely dominated by the army and the new chief a pronounced hardliner, hopes of an effort to end the civil war through dialogue has all but vanished .
On Monday ( 30th March) , General Hlaing stepped down as Commander-in-Chief of Defence Services to stand as a vice-presidential candidate, a mandatory move to formally assume the presidency.
This writer had predicted in February that General Min Aung Hlaing was going to take over as President soon after the Myanmar parliamentary election , described as a sham, put in power the pro-military Union Solidarity & Development Party ( USDP).
It now becomes clear that Aung San Suu Kyi’s refusal to back General Min Aung Hlaing’s bid for Presidency had led to the military coup in February 2021. Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy ( NLD) had swept the parliament polls in late 2021 and was all set to form the government for the second time .
That her mandate was more sweeping than in 2015 worried the generals, because Suu Kyi appeared determined to amend key provisions in the 2008 Constitution that guaranteed the army three key ministries and 25 percent of the seats in parliament.
General Min Aung Hlaing’s failed bid for Presidency led to stage the Feb 2021 coup on the day Suu Kyi was to form the government a second time. Myanmar erupted with massive street protests , the army resorted to brutal massacres to quell the upsurge, sending tens of thousands of ethnic Burmans underground . They swelled the ranks of the newly-formed People’s Defense Forces, who joined the ethnic rebel armies in a nationwide civil war with one objective — defeat the Tatmadaw and create a federal democracy in Myanmar, where the army will have no role in governance.
Now with the Burmese army fighting with its backs to the wall, having lost control over much territory to multiple ethnic rebel armies and resistance groups swearing allegiance to the parellel National Unity Government
( NUG), many would have expected the new pro-junta government by the USDP to make peace overtures to the rebel groups and try end the bloody conflicts that has driven Myanmar to the edge .
But the changes in the military hierarchy following Gen Hlaing stepping down as chief seems to have paved the way for hardliners who would like to continue the fighting.
Those who expected the second most powerful man in the Myanmar military , Vice Senior-General Soe Win , to take over as army chief were shocked to find him purged. Others in the fray were considered too junior to challenge Soe Win, but on Monday, General Hlaing overlooked him and announced as his successor a staunch loyalist General Ye Win Oo.
Gen Oo is the chief of the all-powerful military intelligence and considered the ‘ eyes and ears” of Gen Hlaing. He is known as the ‘ torture chief’ in the Burmese military Tatmadaw , a ruthless officer but one with a poor professional standing.
Soe Win was not even retained as Vice Chief — Lieutenant General Kyaw Swar Lin was named in his place. Myanmar media reports speculate that the 66-year old Soe Win may be appointed to the newly formed Union Consultative Council, which is tasked with guiding and coordinating security, rule of law, foreign relations, the peace process and legislative issues.
For a while, Min Aung Hlaing has been visibly uncomfortable with Soe Win’s growing popularity with the military rank and file . Though at a recent gathering of generals in Naypyitaw, Min Aung Hlaing hailed Soe Win as his “comrade-in-arms” for the past 15 years, he must have felt deeply embarrassed when military families and pro-military ultranationalists (including powerful monks) blamed Min Aung Hlaing for the “humiliating defeats” in the civil war and asked him to step down by handing over command to Soe Win.
Even as he is all set to assume the Presidency , Min Aung Hlaing knows the army is the real power behind the throne — so perhaps he wants to leave its command to a trusted loyalist . One retired Burmese general told this writer on condition of anonymity that Min Aung Hlaing is ‘ worried about his own footsteps’ , meaning he fears a successor who might unleash a coup and bring down both the President and the Parliament. Soe Win’s popularity in the army worried him — so it is a ” I go, you go” move by Hlaing.
Soe Win’s role in the Union Consultative Council , if he joins it, may be just symbolic, since the president is tasked with defining the council’s duties and powers.
Myanmar watchers dont see any light at the end of the tunnel for the conflict-ravaged Pagoda Nation. The country’s leading party NLD is effectively banned and dissolved– like the Awami League in neighbouring Bangladesh– and its leader Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi is locked up for life in prison. A party backed by the military is in power .
But neither the USDP nor the army seem interested in a political dialogue with the rebel armies that have seized huge swathes of territory from the army. China has forced some of these rebel groups to make peace in the country’s Northeast, but the other rebel groups have noticeably gained covert Western support with arms and mercenaries making the way into the conflict zones.
Neither the UN nor the ASEAN have succeeded in getting the warring stakeholders to the table, making the peace process a non-starter. The future of Myanmar as a stable nation-state is at stake and the spectre of a Big Power rivalry looms large , as both China and the West eye Myanmar’s rich natural resources. India has lost the plot in a country that is crucial to the success of its much-touted ‘Act East’ thrust.
The external affairs ministry could have used India’s access with major stakeholders in Myanmar — the army, the NLD and the National Unity Government ( NUG) and some of the big ethnic rebel armies– to initiate a peace mission after the ASEAN’S failed to get a dialogue started with its Five-Point Consensus . But it didn’t even try. Now with the Western powers sending mercenaries and military equipment to rebel groups, some through Indian territory, and the Chinese desperately trying to keep the Myanmar military in fighting shape to protect its huge interests in the country, India can only worry but do little to influence a possible peace process Myanmar desperately needs.
The author is a former BBC and Reuters correspondent and author on South Asian conflicts.
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