Is A New Proxy War Unfolding in the Middle East?
Israel, which had continued to intermittently bomb Syria during Assad’s time, in a proxy war it had fought with Iran, continued these attacks as Al Sharaa took over. For the Jewish state both Iran and the Sunni Islamists now in charge in Syria constitute an identical threat.
By Aditi Bhaduri
Once again the Middle East is witnessing a conflagration. This time Israel has been bombing Damascus, and this time it may have the overt consent of many countries both in the region and beyond.What is the cause for this round of violence in the ever restive region? The immediate cause is protection of the Druze community in Southern Syria, in areas bordering Israel, and along the zone that Israel has occupied more recently inside Syria as the regime of formed president Bashar Al Assad was being toppled in December last year.
The Druze, an ancient Arab religious minority, are concentrated in southern Syria, in the Golan Heights which Israel conquered during the 1967 Arab-Israel war and which is claimed by Syria, as well as northern Israel. In Israel, members of the Druze community have reached high positions in government. In Syria, the Druze community was one of the pillars of support for the minority Allawite dominated government of Syria.
After the fall of the Assad government in December, it’s new ruler Ahmed Al Shara (formerly Golani ) has presided over two major massacres. Srarting on March 6 and over several days Syria saw ugly sectarian bloodshed, with massacres largely in the Alawite coastal heartland. The Alawites, often regarded as heretics by Sunni Muslims, are the community that Assad belongs to and many had feared a reprisal after he was overthrown. They are mostly concentrated in the coastal regions of Latakia province.
The violence sent more than 21,000 fleeing to neighboring Lebanon, according to the UN , with thousands more seeking refuge at a Russian air base on the Mediterranean coast.The United Nations human rights office said that “perpetrators raided houses, asking residents whether they were Alawite or Sunni before proceeding to either kill or spare them accordingly,” with men shot dead in front of their families. The Syrian authorities have accused armed Assad supporters of sparking the violence by attacking the new security forces. Amnesty’s secretary-general, Agnes Callamard, said: evidence indicated that “government affiliated militias deliberately targeted” Alawite civilians “in gruesome reprisal attacks”. Besides Allawites, Christians have also been targeted, many had been supporters of the Al Assad regime.
Probably to save face, Al Sharaa hastily put in place a largely Islamist dominated government, with token positions given to women, Christian, and Allawites for “inclusivity”. They would be governing Syria for the next four years as Al Sharaa has announced that elections would not take place earlier than 2029.
This month a second set of massacres- this time against the Druze minorities unfolded in the community ‘s stronghold of Suweida and neighbouring regions. After a ceasefire was called fresh clashes between the Druze and local government-backed Bedouin tribes broke out, killing over a thousand and displacing more than 128,000 people according to U.N. estimates.
Israel, which had continued to intermittently bomb Syria during Assad’s time, in a proxy war it had fought with Iran, continued these attacks as Al Sharaa took over. For the Jewish state both Iran and the Sunni Islamists now in charge in Syria constitute an identical threat.Druze
Israel-Syria rival Israel had pushed into Southern Syria using ground troops ahd expanded its presence around the Golan Heights, destroying weapons cache. It called it an expansion of a “buffer zone”, saying the presence was required to protect the Druze minority there. in March, acording to Israeli media it struck three air bases in Syria – the T4 and Palmyra air bases in Syria’s Homs province and the main airport in Hama province, where it is widely believed Turkiye was hoping to station its troops. Israel is also reported to be lobbying with the US to prevent the sale of F35s to Ankara, and also allow Russian bases to remain in Syria.
Turkiye, along with Qatar, are in the driver’s seat in Syria. The Tahrir Hayat Al-Sham, as other rebel groups, had been actively supported and sustained by them. While Qatar bankrolled them, Turkiye helped them with military training, arms, logistics, transit, ideology, etc. Ankara is positioning itself to play a major role in the new Syria, filling a vacuum left by Iran. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has visited Syria, while its Defence Minister Yaşar Güler has already offered Damascus support in building up its military. Turkish companies are also looking forward to profit from Syria’s reconstruction which is estimated at almost 500 billion dollars. All these point to Turkish long-term plans to remain engaged with Damascus. Al-Shara has, already paid two official visits to Ankara, since assuming power
Israel sees Turkiyes expanding presence in Syria as an existential threat. Both Qatar and Turkiye have supported and aided Hamas. Since the 7th October 2023 multipronged attacks on Israel by Hamas, Qatar has been forced to roll back its support to the group, and taking on the role of a mediator.
Turkiye on the other hand has continued its support of Hamas, and has been the most (only) vocal critic of Israel’s retaliatory actions in Gaza. It’s ideological affinity with the Muslim Brotherhood and support for the HTS also gives it an upper-hand in Syria. For Turkiye, Syria is important not only for its ambitious goal of being the regional energy hub but also for realizing President Erdogan’s dream of creating a neo-Ottoman Caliphate. Syria is important also for neutralizing Turkiye ‘s Kurdish threat. Since 2016 Turkiye has occupied north-western Syria, and has consistently been expanding its presence there. Syria is also a major cog in Turkiye ‘s connectivity ambitions through Iraq into the Arab Gulf and Asia.
With US President Donald Trump’s promise to remove sanctions from Syria renews the Syrian threat for Israel. The Druze factor has played right into the hands of Israel, even though it was able to use Syrian airspace to strike Iran in it recent 12-day war with it.
Turkiye has for long been calling on Israel to withdraw from southern Syria and has consistently defended Syria ‘s territorial integrity. The dismemberment of Syria would be detrimental to Turkiye’s own stranglehold on its Kurdish population and the just reached peace deal with the PKK – which had waged a long and brutal insurgency against the Turkish government.
The Turkish National Defense Ministry said that the Syrian government has requested official support from Türkiye to strengthen its defense capacity and combat terror groups. “In line with this request, we continue to work to provide training, consultancy, and technical support to increase Syria’s defense capacity,” the Turkish media reported, quoting ministry sources. President Erdoğan has also warned that if Israel did not stop its intervention in Syria then Turkiye would be forced to intervene there. We do not know if Israel is done with Iran yet. But a new proxy war may just be unfolding in the volatile region – between Israel and Turkiye this time. And Israel may have more covert support this time not just from the Arab world but also from arch-rival Iran, who was elbowed out from Syria courtesy the Qatar-Turkiye duo.
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