Security Threats Emanating from Afghanistan: The View from Kazakhstan
The Taliban’s statement about security guarantees for neighboring countries, the pursuit of a “neutral” foreign policy and its “economic orientation” has made it possible to establish official contacts with all neighboring states except Tajikistan,
By Almat Toyekin
– The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan,
– Jamaat Ansarullah (JA),
– Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP),
– Balochistan Liberation Army,
– ISIS (Daesh) Afghan branch Vilayat Khorasan,
– East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM).
All of them have training camps and weapons depots in various provinces of Afghanistan.
The Taliban leadership treats them loyally in exchange for an obligation not to interfere in the country’s internal affairs. This is a manifestation of Kabul’s dual policy, which seeks, on the one hand, to cooperate with neighbors and gain international recognition, and on the other, to support extremists.
Despite the reduction in the number of armed clashes and terrorist attacks, internal fragmentation among the Taliban leadership and resistance from various religious extremist and terrorist groups have led to the continued instability in the country.
In our opinion, the greatest threat to regional security and the Taliban government is posed by the ISIS-Khorasan branch, which is the most ideological of all terrorist groups in Afghanistan and actively spreads ideas of global jihad.
According to the 2023 UN Security Council report, the Khorasan branch includes citizens of Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Russia, Azerbaijan and several other countries, which indicates that ISIS relies mainly on people from post-Soviet states. One of the latest high-profile crimes was a major terrorist attack in the Crocus City Hall in Moscow, which killed more than 140 people.
The militants of the Khorasan branch are trying to infiltrate and “harass” European states. Thus, the arrests of suspected ISIS-Khorasan members in several European countries indicate their preparation for large-scale terrorist attacks. For example, in Italy, citizens of Tajikistan associated with ISIS have been arrested, in Germany, charges have been brought against 7 citizens from Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan for preparing terrorist attacks. Threats from ISIS members were also heard on the eve of the Olympic Games in Paris and the European Football Championship in Germany.
According to the CIA Intelligence Commission, the ISIS-Khorasan network in Central Asia is identified as the largest and most powerful ISIS unit.Given the weak control and serious problems in the security system of Afghanistan, the threats of cross-border movements of the above-mentioned terrorist groups, illegal weapons and drugs, as well as armed clashes are increasing.
In this regard, the border areas with Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are vulnerable, which creates increased security risks for the entire region and requires increased preventive actions by all Central Asian countries.
According to Russian expert A. Serenko, about 40% of the Afghan budget goes to finance the Taliban security forces, another large item of expenditure is aimed at supporting the so-called “military-religious” madrassas, where, according to various estimates, up to 400 thousand young people study. It is characteristic that Afghanistan does not have enough mosques to provide jobs for a huge number of graduates. Accordingly, they may be prepared not for religious activity, but for the creation of a kind of reserve of jihadist groups in the direction of Central Asian countries. In this regard, today’s Afghanistan may be a time bomb.
Drug trafficking from Afghanistan continues to be a serious threat. If in the recent past Afghanistan was the largest producer of opiates and drug trafficking made up a significant part of the country’s economy, then in fairness it should be noted that the Taliban government has made efforts to significantly reduce opium crops, despite the loss of income of about $1.3 billion among tens of thousands of Afghans employed in the opiate industry.
At the same time, converting land to grow crops is much less profitable for Afghan farmers.
It is necessary to take into account that a significant part of the population lives in poverty and more than 29 million Afghans need humanitarian aid. The country has a high birth rate and high unemployment, with the number of unemployed increasing annually to 500 thousand people.
Therefore, in the conditions of a severe economic crisis, the export of narcotic substances from Afghanistan may again resume in significant volumes!
Since the Taliban came to power in 2021, thousands of Afghans have fled the country due to fears of reprisals and economic instability. The resurgence of terrorist groups in Afghanistan could trigger a new wave of uncontrolled mass migration, triggering a humanitarian crisis, creating problems and increasing the burden on the social infrastructure of neighboring Central Asian countries, Pakistan and Iran.
The influx of more than 1 million Afghan refugees from Pakistan in 2023 has already created significant problems for the Afghan authorities, leading to a worsening of the crime situation and contributing to the transition of some returning Afghans to the ranks of extremist and terrorist structures. The deepening of socio-economic problems and the humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan against this background creates migration risks in the border areas of Central Asian countries and contributes to the destabilization of the region.
The implementation of a large water infrastructure project by the Taliban to build a 285-kilometer Kosh-Tepa canal along the transboundary Amu Darya River and create an accompanying irrigation system is causing some concern among the countries of the region.
The project envisages the withdrawal of water from the Amu Darya River for the irrigation of about half a million hectares of land in the northern provinces of Balkh and Jowzjan for growing wheat and other agricultural crops.
However, this project poses a potential water threat to the countries of the lower reaches of the Amu Darya River – Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.
While implementing such a large-scale irrigation and hydropower project, Afghanistan does not consult with Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, which causes tension in bilateral relations.
For example, for Uzbekistan, the Kosh-Tepa canal will significantly reduce the flow of water from the Amu Darya by 15%.
The Taliban government justifies its decision by saying that it is not a signatory to the International Water Convention and insists on its right to use the resources of the transboundary river.
Briefly, I would like to note the interests of large multidirectional external forces, such as Pakistan, Iran, China, Russia and the United States, which have a significant impact on the situation in Afghanistan, but in general do not contribute to the establishment of a favorable atmosphere in this country. External players use Afghanistan mainly as an arena to achieve their geopolitical goals, which increases the risks of escalation of conflicts and instability.
What can be recommended to the countries of Central Asia in terms of improving interaction with Afghanistan?
Continue diplomatic efforts to involve the Taliban government in a constructive dialogue and show interest in Afghanistan joining regional economic projects. This will serve to accelerate favorable processes in the social and economic spheres of Afghan society.
Ask the Taliban to provide firm security guarantees in the region, open the Afghan market and the country’s transit and transport capabilities.
It is necessary to continue coordinating the efforts of the international community to contain and neutralize outgoing cross-border threats (including those mentioned above) in order to prevent large-scale destabilization of the region.
And as a final part – the main thing, in our opinion, deserves positive attention is the desire of the Taliban to actively interact with their neighbors.
All interested countries need to recognize the fact that the Taliban government is the only and real power in Afghanistan! Therefore, in 2023, Kazakhstan excluded the Taliban from the list of banned organizations, and then accredited an Afghan diplomat (M. Rahmani) as Chargé d’Affaires of Afghanistan in Astana.
This step, along with the efforts of the Republic of Kazakhstan to establish in the city of Almaty the UN Regional Centre for the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals for Central Asia and Afghanistan, will contribute to the further integration of this long-suffering country into the world community.
It is important for Kazakhstan and the Central Asian republics to join forces and prevent the development of scenarios of a social and humanitarian catastrophe in Afghanistan, as well as to prevent it from turning into a territory of instability and threats to its neighbors.
The author is a Senior Fellow, Institute for Foreign Policy Research under the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Kazakhstan.
