New political polarization in South Asia

New polarization in South Asian politics is being predicted, with Pakistan’s decision to buy state-of-the-art anti-missile defense systems and fighter jets from Russia clearly indicating how much the polarization of international politics in South Asia is changing.  The warm relations that India and Pakistan have had with their tested friends in the past have now cooled down.  On the other hand, apart from the relations between them, their relations with other neighboring countries have become remarkably friendly, which is due to the new fears that have arisen in the region due to the East-West conflict.

Compared to the past, the relations between Pakistan and Russia are the sweetest now.  The reason is a similar dramatic change in India-US relations.  The United States now considers India as its “strategic partner” in South Asia, which was unthinkable in 1980-81.  At that time Bangladesh was fighting against Pakistan for independence and in that context the United States sent its seventh navy to the Bay of Bengal.

Due to this situation, India’s foreign policy of neutrality has certainly suffered more than that of Pakistan, which was at one time with the Western powers.  At present, the majority of people in both countries are vocal in their criticism of the new foreign policy of their respective countries.  Neither country has sought to know the views of the people involved in making such important decisions.  But they claim that democracy is effective in the countries.

To enhance its military capabilities, Pakistan is currently considering buying state-of-the-art tanks designed by Russia.  Earlier, the country decided to buy four war helicopters from Russia and new engines for JF-8 fighter jets in the Pakistan Air Force.  The two countries have also held joint military exercises, which have raised eyebrows in India.  In addition, a detailed 1 trillion energy deal, which includes a long pipeline through Pakistan, is nearing completion.

While such a bipartisan decision may not prove much at the moment, it does remind us of the danger of instantaneous historiography among politicians.

Observers can recall the proud speech of Benazir Bhutto, the former Prime Minister of Pakistan and the head of the PPP, after the collapse of the former Soviet Union.  “Your United States and our Pakistan have fought shoulder to shoulder and defeated the Soviet Union,” she told a rousing American audience.  We have collectively undermined their desire to survive as an independent nation! ‘ During the post-Afghan war period, Russian forces were retreating, while Chechnya was threatening to break away from Russia.  Even in Moscow itself there were many explosions and terrorist attacks.

How the political destiny has changed, especially for the newly awakened Russia after that time!  If the PPP leader were alive today, she would undoubtedly look like the ‘Lady Rip Van Winkle’ of 2017 in building Russia-Pakistan relations.

It is important to note that Pakistan has benefited greatly from this process of becoming a new ally of Russia.  Because of this new relationship, Pakistan has been able to sustain its quest to be equal to its neighbor India, which it loves to hate.  Pakistan has also been able to join the anti-NATO Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and is working closely with Iran.  The clash with China has also brought additional political benefits for Pakistan.

The United States and the European Union are already upset with Pakistan over its support for Islamic militant groups.  And that is enough to make them unhappy.  However, under no circumstances did Pakistan take the risk of displeasing Saudi Arabia, a loyal ally of the United States in West Asia.  Pakistan has agreed to send troops to US-backed Saudi Arabia, which has been fighting Shiites for Yemen’s leadership on the Yemeni border.

As a result, despite all their economic problems and the image crisis with the international community, Pakistani leaders have not been left alone.  The Pakistani administration, accustomed to adapting to one change after another, is ready to lean from one sphere of power to the other in order to maintain its existence.  But their leaders cannot adhere to to diplomatic etiquette when responding strongly to critics and critics.

Just a few weeks ago, Pakistani generals mocked Washington for threatening to cut off US financial and other aid, reminding Washington that China would stand by them as a loyal ally.  They actually spoke with some kind of provocation.  Referring to the recent situation in Syria and Ukraine, they said that the West has actually weakened in terms of power.  China and Russia are now stronger militarily and economically.

Charubrata Roy, a Calcutta-based analyst, said: This is the first clear indication that Pakistan is no longer afraid to offend the Western world and that its military officials are reluctant to reveal it.

Recent events have also played a role.  What Mrs. Bhutto did not realize was that Pakistan’s strategic importance to the United States had diminished with the fall of the USSR and the birth of a diminished politically influential Russian Federation.  For the Western world, building India as a counter-force against China, which is becoming increasingly influential in South Asia, was clearly more urgent then.

When the right-wing Bharatiya Janata Party came to power, India-US relations continued to grow significantly.  Since the signing of the United States-India Nuclear Cooperation Approval and Non-proliferation Enhancement Act,

 in 2008, the Indian Army, Navy and Air Force have participated in joint exercises with US forces.  In the years since 2005, the two sides have agreed to increase bilateral trade from ১০ 10 trillion to হাজার 50 trillion.  Agreements were also reached for $1 billion defense deal that included projects to purchase C-130, C-16 and P-60 aircraft.  Moreover, the United States, Japan, Australia and India agreed to work closely together to prevent China from influencing the Indian Ocean region.

Clearly, its purpose was to send a strong message to China that it did not just have military might.  Despite India’s close ties to the SCO and its membership in the BRICS, the ongoing turmoil has damaged Sino-Indian relations.  The munitions war stopped in 1972, but tensions on the border continued for days.

Note that the new polarization towards the United States has not started since the BJP came to power in 2014.  In India, this process was initiated during the Congress rule when Manmohan Singh was the Prime Minister of India.  A former diplomat said, “There was no other opportunity for India to choose.  In the 1990s and beyond, our traditional old ally, Russia, looked very weak.  And the United States was gradually moving toward a polar world.  There was no sign of China becoming more liberal in defending India’s interests as it continued to supply arms to Pakistan on a regular basis and continued to grow stronger on its own.  In such a scenario, what could India do but ally with the United States, Japan and Australia against a Chinese attack to prepare its army for an attack in a short period of time? ‘

Left-wing critics of India’s current foreign policy have complained that the United States is reaping the benefits of forging closer bilateral ties in the name of helping India against China, especially financially.  Instead of slashing India’s (slightly older) arms purchases from the United States, President Obama confirmed during his visit to India that India would have to buy equipment from the weak Westinghouse for five years.

 President Donald Trump has maintained the same trend.  He had also criticized Indian tariffs on US motorcycles and some other products, although India has already reduced tariffs on a few products.  The country does not negotiate with India over the sale of advanced high-tech weapons, where Japan and Israel can buy F-35 fighter jets without hassle.  They did not even support the request for the transfer of advanced technology.

Russia, on the other hand, has already offered to sell its state-of-the-art MiG-35 fighter jets to India.  Bangladesh has also shown interest in it.  What does this information indicate?  The West will remain the West and the East will remain the East,. So will this colonial mentality of the Western world survive?  Time would tell.

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