Global nuclear arsenals grow as states continue to modernize: SIPRI
Unlike previous years, the international arms trade did not expand
Stockholm: 14 June 2021: The Stockholm International Peace Research
Institute (SIPRI) today launches the findings of SIPRI Yearbook 2021, which
assesses the current state of armaments, disarmament and international
security. A key finding is that despite an overall decrease in the number
of nuclear warheads in 2020, more have been deployed with operational
forces.
Decline in nuclear arsenals has stalled
The nine nuclear-armed states—the United States, Russia, the United
Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, Israel and the Democratic People’s
Republic of Korea (North Korea)—together possessed an estimated 13 080
nuclear weapons at the start of 2021. This marked a decrease from the 13
400 that SIPRI estimated these states possessed at the beginning of 2020
(see table below).
Despite this overall decrease, the estimated number of nuclear weapons
currently deployed with operational forces increased to 3825, from 3720
last year. Around 2000 of these—nearly all of which belonged to Russia or
the USA—were kept in a state of high operational alert.
While the USA and Russia continued to reduce their overall nuclear weapon
inventories by dismantling retired warheads in 2020, both are estimated to
have had around 50 more nuclear warheads in operational deployment at the start of 2021 than a year earlier. Russia also increased its overall
military nuclear stockpile by around 180 warheads, mainly due to deployment
of more multi-warhead land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles
(ICBMs) and sea-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs). Both countries’
deployed strategic nuclear forces remained within the limits set by the
2010 Treaty on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of
Strategic Offensive Arms (New START), although the treaty does not limit
total nuclear warhead inventories.
‘The overall number of warheads in global military stockpiles now
appears to be increasing, a worrisome sign that the declining trend that
has characterized global nuclear arsenals since the end of the cold war has stalled,’ said Hans M. Kristensen, Associate Senior Fellow with SIPRI’s
Nuclear Disarmament, Arms Control and Non-proliferation Programme and
Director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American
Scientists (FAS). ‘The last-minute extension of New START by Russia and
the USA in February this year was a relief, but the prospects for
additional bilateral nuclear arms control between the nuclear superpowers
remain poor.’
Russia and the USA together possess over 90 per cent of global nuclear
weapons. Both have extensive and expensive programmes under way to replace and modernize their nuclear warheads, missile and aircraft delivery
systems, and production facilities.
‘Both Russia and the USA appear to be increasing the importance they
attribute to nuclear weapons in their national security strategies,’ said
Kristensen.
Other nuclear-armed states investing in future capabilities
All the other seven nuclear-armed states are also either developing or
deploying new weapon systems or have announced their intention to do so.
The UK’s ‘Integrated Review of Security, Defence, Development and Foreign
Policy’, published in early 2021, reversed a policy of reducing the country’s nuclear arsenal and raised its planned ceiling for nuclear weapons from 180 to 260.
China is in the middle of a significant modernization and expansion of its
nuclear weapon inventory, and India and Pakistan also appear to be expanding their nuclear arsenals.
North Korea continues to enhance its military nuclear programme as a
central element of its national security strategy. While it conducted no
nuclear test explosions or long-range ballistic missile tests during 2020,
it continued production of fissile material and development of short- and
long-range ballistic missiles.
‘The entry into force of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons in early 2021 highlights the growing divide between the nuclear-armed states, which are all investing in the long-term future of their nuclear forces, and other countries that are impatient to see
progress on nuclear disarmament promised by the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty,’ said Matt Korda, Associate Researcher with SIPRI’s Nuclear Disarmament, Arms Control and Non-proliferation Programme and Research Associate with the FAS Nuclear Information Project.
**World nuclear forces, January 2021**
In 2021 the USA had a total of 5 550 warheads of which 1800 were deployed; Russia had a total of 6255 warheads of which 1625 were deployed; UK had 235 of which 120 were deployed; France had 290 with 280 deployed; china, India, Pakistan and Israel have 350, 156, 165, and 90 respectively, while figured for North Korea are suggested to be in the range of 40-50.
The figures for North Korea are SIPRI’s estimates of the number of
warheads that North Korea could potentially build with the amount of
fissile material it has produced. There is no publicly available evidence
that North Korea has produced an operational nuclear warhead for delivery by an intercontinental-range ballistic missile, but it might have a small
number of warheads for medium-range ballistic missiles.
The global total estimated by SIPRI, thus, stands at 3 825 deployed nuclear warheads, 9 255 other warheads, 13 080 total warheads in 2021, with 13 400 being the figures for 2020.
Mixed outlook for global security and stability
The 52nd edition of the SIPRI Yearbook reveals some negative and some
hopeful developments in 2020.
‘Despite outbreaks of conflict, rising military spending and of course the first year of a devastating global pandemic, overall global human security did not continue to deteriorate in 2020. The year’s crumbs of comfort included a significant drop in the number of people who died in armed conflicts around the world. Unlike previous years, the international arms trade did not expand. And the Climate Action Summit made some notable—if still insufficient—progress on climate goals,’ said SIPRI
Director Dan Smith.
In addition to its detailed coverage of nuclear arms control and non-proliferation issues, the latest edition of the SIPRI Yearbook includes insight on developments in conventional arms control in 2020; regional overviews of armed conflicts and conflict management; in-depth data and
discussion on military expenditure, international arms transfers and arms
production; and comprehensive coverage of efforts to counter chemical and biological security threats.
