How can India and Nepal get ties back on track?

By Adithyan Nair

Tensions between India and Nepal have been on the rise since late 2015. This has partly to do with Nepal’s big state-small state complex vis-a-vis India, India’s ‘Big Brother’ attitude towards Nepal, border issues, and more recently, the tilt towards China by the current government in Kathmandu.  A growing anti-India sentiment in Nepal has also contributed towards this strained relationship. As of now, there have been attempts of diplomatic visits and talks between the two governments to resolve these issues.

Earlier this year, on August 15th 2020, in a phone call with Indian Prime Minister Mr. Narendra Modi Nepal’s Prime Minister Mr. K. P Sharma Oli extended his greetings to the Government and people of India on the occasion of its 74th Independence Day, and also congratulated India for being elected as a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council. A press release  by India’s Ministry of External Affairs said that  both leaders expressed mutual solidarity in the context of the efforts being made to minimise the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in both countries. Modi offered India’s continued support to Nepal in this regard.

Cartographic Row

The current round of friction in bilateral relations is a cartographic one. Last year, India had redrawn its political map of Jammu and Kashmir after revoking article 370 but this was met with a clear objection from the Nepali government due to the inclusion of Kalapani within the territory of India. The foreign secretaries undertook the responsibility of resolving the remaining border-related issues between India and Nepal. Then in May this year, the Indian government inaugurated a road link via Lipulekh to Kailash Mansarovar in the Tibet Autonomous Region of China. India’s Defence Minister Rajnath Singh inaugurated the road which led to further souring of ties between Nepal and India.

In June, Nepal published a map of the country featuring areas which India maintains belong to it. The inclusion of Kalapani into the Pithoragarh district of Uttarakhand has been objected by Nepal as it considers the unresolved territory a part of the Darchula district in Nepal and this is one of the most critical issues that escalated into a major row between the two neighbouring countries, causing a crisis in bilateral relations.

This was followed up by the amendment in the Nepalese citizenship bill that was amended on June 21 2020. In an article published by the Economic Times it said that “The passage of the citizenship amendment bill in the full House will likely sound a death knell to the so-called ‘roti-beti rishta’, a favourite phrase Indian political leaders use to describe the people-to-people links and the close ties of kinship by marriage between Indians and Nepalis.” Until this recent amendment, Indian women marrying Nepalese men automatically acquired Nepalese citizenship following renunciation of their Indian citizenship. Such women will have to now wait for 7 years before they can acquire Nepalese citizenship. Although the law does not solely target Indians, the majority affected will be Indians, especially those residing  in the bordering states of Uttarakhand, UP and Bihar and to some extent in the Darjeeling-Sikkim area that have familial links across the border. Without Nepali citizenship, it is very difficult for a person to open a bank account, get a job or indeed even inherit property from her spouse. Ranjit Rae, former Indian ambassador to Nepal said that “The bill is a reflection of an angst, a distrust in the minds of some Nepalese leaders, particularly the communists, vis-à-vis India. Not openly stated but deeply felt is an anxiety that the roti-beti rishta will bring about demographic change as Indians will flood Nepal; Nepal could become another Fiji.”

Indians were also furious when Prime Minister Oli blamed Indian for the spread of the coronavirus infection in Nepal.

The Chinese Factor

Things got out of hand when the Indian government and media tried to portray Oli and his government as puppets of China — even though Kathmandu still has an unresolved border dispute with China over Lipulekh Pass. Indian Army Chief Narvane also spoke on the matter, claiming that Nepal’s objection to the road construction could have been done at the “behest of someone else” — widely regarded as an indirect reference to China.

Of course China has been incrementally making inroads into Nepal, as part of its broader inroad into South Asia, much to India’s consternation. And it is incumbent Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli who is credited with strengthening Nepal’s ties with China since he took over as Prime Minister of the Himalayan country first in 2015. Apart from the trade and transit treaty that the two countries have signed, Nepal has also been involved in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and 90 per cent of total foreign direct investments to Nepal come from China. China has consistently been amongst the top three investors in Nepal since 2016. In the first quarter of the last fiscal year, of total FDI pledges which stand at 95 million U.S. dollars, China alone pledged 88 million U.S. dollars, India came at a distant third with 1.76 million dollars.

The Communist Party of Nepal (CPN) shares close ties with Chinese Communist Party and the Chinese Ambassador has been known to hold consultation with politicians. The affinity between the current government of Prime Minister Oli and the Chinese is also no secret. Nepal has been used to playing the China card to seek concessions from India for long. Under the incumbent government the first trade and transit agreement between the two countries was signed in 2016, ending India’s monopoly over the same. At the same time the agreement to build a rail link from Nepal to China through Tibet is driven by Kathmandu’s desire to be less dependent on India.

Last year China pledged $21 million aid to the Nepalese Army.

With India’s on-going border conflict with China – which has regularly been resurfacing since President Xi Jinping took charge in Beijing – China’s outreach to Kathmandu is a source of concern for India.

On-going diplomacy

However, both countries are also undertaking several diplomatic measures to de-escalate tensions. This testifies to a willingness on both sides to iron out the differences and get bilateral relations back on track.  On 22nd October, Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) chief Samant Kumar Goel paid a courtesy call on Prime Minister K P Sharma Oli and said India will not allow interruption in the friendly bilateral relations with Nepal and resolve all outstanding issues through dialogue. Roughly a week later, on November 4th, Indian army chief General Manoj Mukund Naravane came to Nepal for a three-day visit. The Indian army chief is set to hold talks with President Bhandari, Nepali Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli and his Nepali counterpart, General Purna Chandra Thapa. The spokesperson of the Nepali army, Brigadier Santosh Ballav Poudel, told the German publication Deautshe Welle that the trip was supposed to take place in February this year, but it was postponed due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The Nepali prime minister’s foreign policy adviser, Rajan Bhattarai, was also quoted by the Economic Times as saying that both India and Nepal were ready to engage in dialogue despite differences over border issues.

Both sides, therefore, pinned great hopes on Chief General Manoj Mukunda Naravne Naravne’s visit, which was widely regarded to be an effort to reset ties. The army chief’s visit went off well – he presented medical equipment for two field hospitals of Nepal Army, which included X-ray machines, ICU ventilators, Video Endoscopy units, anesthesia machines, and ambulances reflecting India’s “Neighbourhood First” policy. The Nepalese Army issued a statement welcoming the visit, saying it believed “that exchange of such high-level visits and continuation of tradition helps in strengthening relations between the two armies, contributing to enhanced relationship between the two countries.”

However, the Nepalese Prime Minister did communicate Nepal’s position on resolving the border dispute at Lipulekh, Limpyadhura and Kalapani. when the Indian Army Chief called in at his official residence on Friday at the end of his three-day visit, the Kathmandu Post reported. This reflected that territorial and border issues continued to dominate bilateral relations and needed greater effort by both sides, coming as it did against the backdrop of India China confrontation in Ladakh. Complicating matters is the political infighting within Nepal’s government and the ruling party.

Much diplomatic effort is being put in to put the relations back on track. According to reports coming out from Kathmandu, Nepal seeks “ resumption of high level visits in different sectors since there was no communication for a year.”

Both India and Nepal are now looking forward to the upcoming visit of Indian Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla who is expected to visit the Himalayan nation on November 26 and November 27 with an aim to further the bilateral relations.

India, therefore, has its task cut out before it. It has to diplomatically  restore the Indo-Nepalese relationship, while  Nepal  has to get over its Big state-Small state complex and view itself as a part of the South Asian region.

Aditi Bhaduri

See author's posts