Conflict in the Caucases: why India should be watching closely
India needs to watch the the use of foreign recruits in the conflict very carefully, battling as it is its own war against cross-border terror.
By Aditi Bhaduri
The Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict is raging on, even as casualties are mounting. At the last count more than hundred had been killed. There is a maze of information and disinformation with the conflict continuing to make headlines across the world as it’s earlier phases never had.
The conflict has old historical roots but it’s modern avatar was shaped during the Soviet Union when republics were formed with the purpose of keeping them dependent on Moscow. Thus, for instance, we see large Tajik speaking areas incorporated into the republic of Uzbekistan instead of in Tajikistan.
Similarly, Nagorno-Karabakh, over which the two Caucasian states have been locked into a more than a decades long conflict, was incorporated into the Soviet Republic of Azerbaijan, even though 90 per cent of it’s population was ethnic Armenian. That is why, perhaps, even within the Soviet Republic of Azerbaijan it was an ‘autonomous republic’ . As the USSR collapsed, conflict broke out as the people of Nagorno-Karabakh wanted to, naturally, not be part of any emerging Azerbaijan state.
In 1994 a ceasefire was imposed between the warring sides and Nagorno-Karabakh, or the Republic of Artsakh as it’s inhabitants call it, has de-facto become self-governing with it’s own government, economy, and a vibrant domestic political life.
A pre-planned escalation?
This year fresh violence erupted in july 2020. It remains unclear what sparked the current round of conflict after years. But analysts believe there were warning signals which were either not picked up or ignored.
From July 29 to August 10, Azerbaijan and Turkey conducted joint military exercises on an unusually large scale in
Baku, Nakhichevan, Ganja, Kurdamir and Yevlakh. The exercises involved
thousands of military personnel, hundreds of armoured combat vehicles,
artillery and military aviation. Following it, Azerbaijan President Aliev’s address at the UN General Assembly was a particularly strident one.
Baku, Nakhichevan, Ganja, Kurdamir and Yevlakh. The exercises involved
thousands of military personnel, hundreds of armoured combat vehicles,
artillery and military aviation. Following it, Azerbaijan President Aliev’s address at the UN General Assembly was a particularly strident one.
Other pointers show probabilities that the conflict was a pre-planned attack.
For instance, Azerbaijan closed down transit air corridors for the last two months. Azerbaijan had also started drafting reservists and confiscating civilian trucks for military needs since 21st September. Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Defence even rejected the request of the OSCE Permanent Representative to organize a Ceasefire Monitoring along the line of contact.
But, most frightening and obnoxious of all, has been the now well established reports of Syrian mercenaries being used in the conflict by Azerbaijan. Surely, this required planning.
Turkey’s role in the conflict
Now as conflict rages on the USA, France and Russia – co-chairs of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe’s (OSCE) Minsk Group, set up in 1992 to mediate the conflict – have called for a ceasefire as have most other countries, including India. Armenia has expressed it’s willingness to engage with it.
One country, apart from Azerbaijan, has opposed this – Turkey.. Turkey has been engaging in war rhetoric since the beginning of the conflict, even though it is not a direct party to it.
What explains Turkish approach to the conflict?
Turkey and Azerbaijan share close ethnic, linguistic, cultural and religious ties though one is Sunni and the other predominantly Shia. And Turkish President Reccep Tayip Erdogan’s ambitions to lead the Muslim world is well known. The Caucases present another such opportunity for Turkey, following its expansionist moves in the Middle East, North Africa, and the Eastern Mediterranean.
But equally, Turkey needs Azerbaijan’s resources. A plumeting lira and a weakening economy compels Turkey to seek newer markets and investments. Moreover, Saudi Arabia, a major market for Turkish exports has just announced a trade boycott of Turkey. Other Gulf states may follow, angered by Erdogan’s rhetoric following moves by them to normalize relations with Israel. Added to that is the specter of EU sanctions.
Azerbaijan is a major investor – perhaps even the biggest – in the Turkish economy. Turkey is also scouting for markets for it’s defence exports and the conflict presents so cheap an opportunity.
That to a large extent explains Erdogan’s belligerence and what French president Emanuel macron has described as “war rhetoric” against Armenia.
And in this war rhetoric it is not Erdoğan alone. Just sample this, soon after hostilities broke out between the two Caucasian states, a prominent Turkish editor called for a missile to be dropped in the center of Yerevan to show Turkish solidarity with Azerbaijan!
But there are other considerations as well.
Recruitment of foreign mercenaries
Turkey and Armenia have a strained relationship as a result of the Armenian genocide during the twilight years of the Ottoman empire. Turkey has not recognized it, neither does it have diplomatic relations with Armenia till now. The conflict is a good way to substantially weaken Armenia and bolstr Turkish presence and position in the region.
Next, the recruitment of Syrian mercenaries (an unfortunate fallout of Middle East politics since most Syrians have a favourable view of Armenia and vice versa) is believed to stem from Turkey’s desire to remove them far from Turkey as also to keep them away from Syria for ensuing agreement with Russia.
Which brings us to Russia – the major player in the conflict since 1992. Armenia hosts Russia’s only military base in the region. Armenia is also a member of the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization and may invoke Russian help in the face of external aggression. Therefore, Turkey may want to use the conflict as an opportunity to strike a deal with Russia on Syria. Is it a coincidence that Erdoğan recently announced that Turkey would occupy northern Syria?
It would therefore seem logical for Erdoğan to reject the joint call by Putin, Macron and Trump for a ceasefire and (mention whatever they asked for). Turkey is positioning itself as a major player in the conflict, egging on Azerbaijan to agree to a ceasefire only on condition that Armenia withdraws all it’s forces from “all occupied territory” of Azerbaijan.
Since 1994 Nagorno-Karabakh has existed de-facto as a separate entity – “a vibrant political domestic life,” as senior Caucases analyst of the international crisis group Olesya Vartanyan told this writer in an interview. It is simply wishful thinking that the region can be returned to the early 1990s. Yet, the rhetoric and belligerence continues. While the death toll on both sides mount.
India has issued – five days after the conflict began – a characteristically cautious statement. It has expressed support for the “OSCE Minsk Group’s continued efforts for a peaceful resolution of the conflict”. But India could also have made a call against any third party interference in the conflict. India needs to watch the the use of foreign recruits in the conflict very carefully, battling as it is its own war against cross-border terror. Pakistan has become a part of the China-Pakistan-Turkey trinity, and with the impending ascendance of the Taliban in Afghanistan, such recruitment has grave implications for South Asia.
Finally someone gets it right. Caucases may seem far, but implications for India are grave. Wake up India!