Turkey and Russia Are at War, and Libya’s the Loser
The failed siege of Tripoli is an opening for peace, but only if the outside players end their proxy war.
By James Stavrodis, Bloomberg
The long-running Libyan civil war appears to be staggering toward a finale. In recent days, the forces of General Khalifa Haftar, who controls the marginalized east and south of the country, have been forced to withdraw from their stalled offensive against the capital, Tripoli. It is a triumph for the internationally recognized Government of National Unity, led by the elected prime minister, Fayez al-Sarraj.
But the fighting is not simply a domestic issue — Libya’s civil war has become a proxy for regional and global power geopolitics. It is also a legacy of the way in which the West abandoned the country a decade ago.
At that moment, unfortunately, the resolve of the West was weak. NATO, its military mission complete, withdrew. I looked with disappointment at the EU and the rest of the global community refusing to remain and stabilize the situation. Libya descended into the chaos it still suffers today. The ancient animosities inside the country are largely tribal at heart, and rooted in resentments between the relatively wealthier west and the oil-poor east and south.
In the aftermath of the NATO intervention, I met with Haftar, a dual Libyan-U.S. citizen who lived near Washington for years. I was impressed with his energy and drive, and hoped he could be part of resolving the tensions in the country after the NATO mission departed.
But as the civil war has dragged on since 2014, Haftar has led a campaign to dominate the country militarily, leading nations from across the region to intervene either for or against him. Turkey has been particularly engaged, throwing its support behind the Tripoli government. Russia joined the Arab states supporting Haftar, sending in a comically inept mercenary force, the Wagner Group, to try and swing events in the general’s favor. The mercenaries were ignominiously airlifted out this week, but Russian air power is reportedly being deployed in support of Haftar’s troops.
Nonetheless, the Tripoli government sounds increasingly confident in its ground game, and Turkish air power (including sophisticated drones) is having strong effect. The whole thing is an echo of the so-called Great Game the British and Russians waged in Central Asia in the 19th century, but now playing out in North Africa.
All of this occurs as the coronavirus spreads across the region and many global powers, including the U.S., are highly distracted. Yet there have been thousands of deaths and more than 200,000 people displaced from their homes in the last year alone. More fighting will also mean more illegal migration north to Europe over dangerous sea routes.
The U.S. hasn’t been totally AWOL. In late January, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo attended an international conference in Berlin that sought to push the warring sides toward negotiations. But Turkey and Russia, motivated by oil wealth and regional leverage, never reached a deal. Now, perhaps, the setbacks to Haftar’s forces will reopen a chance for peace.
For the U.S., the best course is to partner with the EU to restart talks somewhere in Western Europe. They should press Turkey, a NATO ally, to negotiate with Russia on each reducing military support; aim to get agreement from the Gulf Arabs (who no longer have teeming oil wealth allowing them to intervene abroad) and Egypt to let the Libyans sort it out internally; help build a cease-fire that could restart the oil production; and provide humanitarian assistance in containing the coronavirus.
Losing a brutal dictator only to fall into a decade of war has been a sad outcome for the 6 million Libyans. For the U.S. and Europe, helping them find a path to peace is not just a humanitarian imperative — it is a direct responsibility, given the dire way in which the 2011 NATO intervention turned out.
