There may not be a practical application of the Iraqi parliament’s decision: Iraqi analyst
ISIS remains a major security challenge for Iraq, despite the military victory in 2017. Therefore, the withdrawal of US troops ] will increase the possibility of the ISIS force and the possibility of attacking it and controlling it again in some areas.
In the wake of the assasination of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani in Baghdad airport by the US, the Iraqi parliament on Sunday, 5th January 2020 passed a resolution seeking the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq. Some are calling it the first salvo fired by Iran at the US. Iraqi political analyst Dr. Ihsan al-Shammari who is currently also thePresident of the Baghdad-based Iraqi Centre for Political Thought spoke to Aditi Bhaduri on what can be the possible implications of this resolution by the Iraqi parliament.
The Iraqi parliamenthas passed a resolution asking for removal of US troops from Iraq. What are implications of this? Will it make Iraq draw closer to Iran?
The parliament’s decision is a symbolic step and can be considered a recommendation for the next government to withdraw foreign forces from Iraq, which came in response to targeting [of] Qassem Soleimani and PMU chief Abu Mahdi Al Muhandis, to be implemented by Iran’s allies in Iraq, to score the first points in the American-Iranian conflict.
The decision may be pressure on the next government, but there may not be a practical application for it, because the implementation of this decision will place Iraq as a country against, and then Iraq will be exposed to international isolation and economic sanctions by Washington, and the withdrawal may lead to the return of ISIS and security chaos.
This decision reveals that the equation governing the decision, whether executive or legislative, is a close ally of Iran.
Sunni leaders and Kurdish leaders did not vitein the Iraqi parliament for this resolution. Will it deepen sectarian divide – between shiis and Sunnis in Iraq?
The non-attendance of the Sunnis and the Kurds, indicating the presence of a sharp political division over the parliament’s decision to withdraw foreign and American forces, and the political forces close to Iran alone who initiated this decision.
The Sunnis rejected the decision because they realize that Iran and the armed factions will engulf Iraq and will be a dependent state, so they are very concerned about such steps and will consider re-evaluating their alliances with the Shiite political forces allied to Iran.
The Kurds believe that the presence of American forces is the guarantor of their presence and what they achieved after 2003 in this political system, and they realize that an American withdrawal will put them under the fire of armed factions and the possibility of collision with them, especially after previous threats to do so.
In return for that, Iraqi society has crossed the sectarian divide between Sunnis and Shiites after the victory over ISIS, and this is due to the successful policy of former Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi.
Iraqi society will not return to sectarianism, and it places other priorities away from their politicians.
Will the removal of US troops from Iraq impact the war with ISIS? The ISIS are said to be gaining in strength.
ISIS remains a major security challenge for Iraq, despite the military victory in 2017.
ISIS has been able to reproduce itself during the past months, even with the death of its leader, Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi.
The pre-emptive operations of the Iraqi security forces for months indicate that the organization is still active and there are near Iraqi cities and villages and that it can carry out specific operations, and at the same time it indicates that the Iraqi forces need more help in order to stop the expansion of this organization.
The withdrawal of American forces will weaken the capabilities of the Iraqi security forces to confront ISIS, if the Iraqi army continues to rely heavily on American support in armament, training, and logistical support, and even to conduct joint military operations against ISIS.
Therefore, the withdrawal of US troops [from Iraq] will increase the possibility of the ISIS force and the possibility of attacking it and controlling it again in some areas.
Can you tell us about diplomatic moves in the region for deescalation tensions between Iran and US? Eg. Oman, EU.
Oman has good relations with Iran and can play a role in reducing the level of the recent escalation after the killing of Soleimani, and it had played a major role in the previous nuclear agreement, Oman and other Gulf states are aware of the consequences of escalation and engagement between Washington and Tehran over the region and the economic effects in If this engagement continues.
It will act as a trusted party by Iran and also with an Arab desire to stop these repercussions.
The European Union, it is not in its interest for the region to explode and call on Iran to calm to preserve Western interests in the region, but in the end many European countries will join the United States in its struggle against Iran.
