Iran’s Nuclear Issue: Implications For India
The challenge for India’s diplomacy therefore is to find a way out of the USA’s conflict with Iran (and also with Russia) so that its vital energy and maritime connectivity interests in the case of Iran remain unaffected.
Photo: File/Reuters
By Amb. Achal Malhotra
The Iran nuclear issue, which appeared to have been settled in 2015, after keeping the international community engaged for almost two decades, is once again under spotlight. It has the potential not only to destabilise the region but has much wider repercussions beyond the region, including for India.
To put the issue in perspective it is important to recapitulate its historical evolution. Iran’s nuclear program was started in 1957 when the United States of America and Iran signed a civilian nuclear cooperation arrangement, known as the Cooperation Concerning Civil Uses of Atoms, through the United States’ Atoms for Peace program, which provided for nuclear technology and education to promote peaceful uses of nuclear technology. In 1967, the United States supplied Iran with a 5 megawatt Nuclear Research Reactor along with highly enriched uranium to fuel the reactor, to be housed at the Tehran Nuclear Research Centre (TRNC) established by the Shah of Iran in 1969. In 1974 the Shah of Iran established the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) and announced its ambitious plans to generate about 23,000 megawatts of energy over 20 years, including the construction of 23 nuclear power plants and the development of a full nuclear fuel cycle. Earlier in February 1970, Iran’s Parliament ratified the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) which Iran had signed as a non-nuclear weapons State in 1969.
The 1979 Revolution in Iran and the seizure of the U.S. embassy in Tehran resulted in a severing of U.S.-Iranian ties and damaged Iran’s relationship with the West. Iranian nuclear projects were halted. In 1984, the Nuclear Programme was resumed and this time the partners were Pakistan, China and later Russia. Iran is also alleged to have procured nuclear technology for military applications from A.Q. Khan’s clandestine network.
The real problem began in 2002 when the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) revealed at a press conference on 14th August the existence of undeclared nuclear facilities in Iran. From 2003 onwards till 2015, the Iran nuclear issue was a subject of intense deliberations at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and UN Security Council on one hand and parallel negotiations between Iran and P5+1 (USA, Russia, China, UK, France i.e. the Five Permanent Members of the UNSC + Germany). The crux of the matter was that in the assessment -in particular of the USA and EU- Iran was developing a nuclear weapons programme clandestinely in violation of its obligations under the NPT and had concealed information about its nuclear facilities under its obligations arising out of its safeguards agreement with IAEA. Iran on its part was firm on its stand that Iran’s nuclear programme was meant entirely for peaceful purposes.
The turbulent episode eventually came to an end with the signing of the historic Iran nuclear deal (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or JCPOA) between Iran and P5+1 (USA, Russia, China, France, UK + Germany) on 14th July, 2015. The agreement places limitations on Iran’s nuclear programme, particularly on enrichment and reprocessing of uranium and provides for enhanced monitoring by the IAEA. In return Iran gets relief from crippling economic sanctions imposed on it from time to time.
From here onwards the IAEA was monitoring and submitting Quarterly Reports on the status of the implementation of JCPOA. Till recently, it repeatedly confirmed that Iran was in compliance with the JCPOA. And the international community thought it could sit back and relax as a complex issue which posed threat to international security stood resolved.
However, the matter stands complicated once again with the US decision last year (8th May, 2018) to withdraw from the JCPOA and to re-impose sanctions on Iran. The immediate response from the other signatories to JCPOA including Iran was to continue to adhere to the JCPOA.
From mid -2019, however, Iran has been threatening to breach the limitations imposed by JCPOA and has even hinted it may walk out of NPT, unless the other signatories to JSPOA find a way out of the situation created by the US withdrawal and imposition of sanctions. In its latest Quarterly report on 1st July 2019, the IAEA confirmed Iran’s announcement that it had surpassed the 300 kilogram limit on uranium gas enriched to 3.67% set by the deal, and thus breached one of the provisions of the JSPOA
India’s consistent stand on Iran nuclear issue during prolonged and protracted negotiations was two-fold: Iran has a legitimate right to develop its nuclear programme for peaceful purposes; at the same time Iran must adhere to its international obligations arising out of NPT and the its Safeguards agreement signed with IAEA.In 2005, India had pleaded for retaining the Issue within the IAEA but ultimately joined the consensus in favour of referring the matter to UN Security Council.
In the current scenario, the US sanctions on Iran impinge upon India’s national interests in more than one way. First, the US sanctions require that India stops buying oil from Iran. The US had waived the sanctions for India and seven other countries to procure oil from Iran up-to May 2, 2019 , and remains determined NOT to renew the waiver. Iran is one of the major sources of oil for India, and thus the sanctions have serious implications for India’s energy security. India has shared its concerns with the US , including during the US State Secretary’s visit to India in June this year and presumably during the meeting between the Prime Minister Modi and President Trump in June on the side-lines of G-20 Summit. During the press briefings in New Delhi, the Indian External Affairs Minister was explicit in insisting upon the predictability and affordability of energy security. India has stopped buying oil from Iran for the time being, and it remains to be seen how the situation evolves.
Further, if the mounting tensions between the USA and Iran do ultimately develop into a military conflict, the stability of the region will be jeopardised. From India’s perspective, it may have an adverse impact on India’s connectivity with Chabahar Port in Iran which India has developed recently at considerable cost to link India with Afghanistan and Iran and beyond, by-passing Pakistan.
India’s relations with USA are no doubt of utmost importance. However, can India allow its national interests to suffer due to the decisions of the US government. The challenge for India’s diplomacy therefore is to find a way out of the USA’s conflict with Iran (and also with Russia) so that its vital energy and maritime connectivity interests in the case of Iran (as well as defence interests in procuring S-400 missile systems in the case of Russia ) remain unaffected.
(The author is a former diplomat and has served on the IAEA)
