India-U.S. Relationship Sours: Pivoting East

By Ria Mazumdar

In May, after Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s election victory, President Trump tweeted that Modi “is a great man and leader for the people of India – they are lucky to have him!” Comparisons have been drawn between the two political leaders, both of whom have built populist platforms around exclusionary nationalism and promises of economic growth. In 2017, a photo of the two men bear hugging indicated their budding friendship and a deepening alliance between India and the U.S. However, a number of events since the G20 summit have begun to sour this relationship. In particular, three recent issues are salient: Trump’s gaffe on Kashmir, India’s purchase of military weapons from Russia, and the U.S.’s stance on trade. The strain in this bilateral relationship not only impacts these two countries, but is reflective of a global shift in power whereby Russia and China gain hegemony at the expense of the U.S.

The G20 Summit 

 The G20 Summit in Osaka took place in June immediately after Secretary of State Michael Pompeo visited India, when he urged Modi to stop importing oil from Iran and Venezuela and discussed a number of other issues in order to quell tensions. At that time, Trump tweeted that India’s retaliatory tariffs “must be withdrawn.” This is indicative of a broader structural problem in U.S. foreign policy: the president’s independent actions, especially in the form of inflammatory tweets, risk damaging concurrent diplomatic efforts. The inconsistency between the president’s off-the-cuff talking points and U.S. foreign policy poses a huge risk to U.S. foreign policy objectives.

  Despite his earlier remarks, however, Trump aligned himself with Modi at the summit, calling India and the U.S. “great friends.” Since then, things have changed. Although India is an important ally for the U.S., especially as a counter to China, analysis of these three issues since the summit (Kashmir, military weapons, and trade) reveals significant fissures emerging in the relationship due to diplomatic failings, and the implementation of aggressive policies rather than collaborative engagement. The future of the relationship is uncertain as the possibility of U.S. sanctions and renegotiated trade terms emerges. Recently, India engaged with Russia and China at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Kyrgyzstan. This revealed a budding alliance between India and two significant U.S. rivals. Engaging India at this point is thus in the strategic interest of the U.S. If the Trump administration continues to approach the U.S.-India relationship as it has during the past month, it is likely to push India closer to China and Russia and undermine its own strategic interests in the process.

Kashmir 

On July 22, Trump alleged that Modi asked him to mediate the Kashmir dispute with Pakistan. He then stated, “If I can help, I would love to be a mediator.” This reveals the president’s profound ignorance of geopolitical context, as the U.S. has maintained for decades that the Kashmir issue is a bilateral one that must be negotiated between India and Pakistan. India’s External Affairs Minister immediately released a statement denying such a conversation. Consistent with the idea that Trump’s Twitter takes are inconsistent with official U.S. policy, a number of U.S. sources including the State Department and the House Committee on Foreign Affairs also immediately rejected the president’s claims. Kashmir was never discussed at the G20 summit. Trump’s remarks were thus totally disconnected from the formal meeting he had with Modi. They were not simply politically insensitive, but have also brought in Pakistan into the conversation. Pakistan has consistently asked for international third-party mediation on the Kashmir issue. Trump’s remarks thus triggered excitement and confusion there as well.

The Indian government’s moderated reaction indicates that they understand that the president’s comments were an aberration. Although the situation has not escalated further, the gaffe is symptomatic of a diplomatic gulf between Trump and Modi, whose relationship has undoubtedly been affected by Trump’s lack of credibility on South Asian geopolitics. The Indian parliament was in an uproar after Trump’s remarks, with opposition members protesting and demanding a response from Modi. Public pressure alone is thus likely to push Modi away from Trump. To keep the peace at home, Modi must totally discard the U.S. president’s remarks and deny his credibility. Such a situation is largely unprecedented in the two countries’ recent relationship, and this will test the U.S. India alliance as China and Russia become increasingly attractive alternatives as hegemonic allies. Of course, much of it has to do with Afghanistan. Looking for a quick fix solution to America’s longest war in history, Trump has once again to turn to Pakistan to conclude a hasty peace with the Taliban and withdraw US troops from there. Kashmir is the carrot that Trump must thus dangle to get Pakistan on board.

Sanctioning Military Purchases

The U.S.-India defense relationship has quickly devolved. Earlier this year, the U.S. designated India a “Major Defense Partner,” increasing sales and military partnership between the two countries. However, after India decided to purchase weapons from Moscow, the U.S. is now considering placing sanctions. Turkey and China are facing similar sanctions for weapons purchases. However, these punitive measures have not deterred, nor significantly punished, any of these countries. Indeed, India seems to be moving ahead with plans to purchase more weapons from Russia in the future. This serves as another example of punitive, aggressive measures backfiring. Michael Kugelman, Deputy Director of the Wilson Center’s Asia Program, called the U.S.’s decision “one of the most pivotal decisions for the U.S.-India relationship in recent memory,” saying that following through on the threat of sanctions will “plunge [the relationship] into a major crisis.”

This bitterness is exacerbated by U.S. stances toward other countries in South Asia. India has an interest in maintaining ties with Iran, another country facing U.S. sanctions, in order to corner Pakistan. Additionally, the U.S.’s collaboration with Pakistan over an exit strategy in Afghanistan is likely to make India nervous. Rather than alienate India further, the U.S. should coax India more closely into an alliance by making compromises and putting in effort to offer more attractive military deals than Russia or China. Engaging with India’s strategic and military needs could be a compelling pillar of U.S. foreign policy. 

Trade 

The Trump administration has administered a wave of punitive tariffs to many countries. Last year, it imposed them on Indian aluminum and steel, and earlier this year the U.S. withdrew India’s preferential trade status. India announced retaliatory tariffs in response. According to a BJP functionary, Trump’s aggressive trade policy is only pushing India closer to China out of fear that its economic security is uncertain. China is taking notes: recently, the Chinese ambassador to India explicitly asked India to “join China in the fight against unilateralism and protectionism,” clearly positioning the two countries against Trump’s America. Furthermore, China has increased its investment in Indian start-ups from $600 million in 2016 to $5.5 billion in 2018. China is clearly in a position to effectively exploit the tension between India and the U.S. 

After the G20 summit, talks between the U.S. and India ended with no clear breakthrough. Although the Indian Commerce and Industry Minister will visit the U.S. sometime next month, the prospect of a mutually beneficial deal seems unlikely. As Modi faces internal pressure due to Trump’s shredded credibility on Kashmir, Indian constituents are not likely to favor a trade deal that will increase American imports at the expense of Modi’s “Make in India” strategy. Modi himself has no clear incentive to seek out such a deal, especially when avenues for cooperation with other countries are opening.

Looking Ahead

Near the beginning of Trump’s term, and even earlier this year, the Trump-Modi friendship was almost farcical. However, three recent events – Trump’s Kashmir gaffe, threat of sanctions on India, and punitive trade measures – threaten to sour the relationship irreversibly. As the U.S. steers away from engagement and more toward an aggressive, punitive foreign policy, India is looking to Russia and China as increasingly appealing alternatives. A strengthened India-Russia, or worse, an India-China alliance would be a tremendous threat to U.S. hegemony. Thus, Trump’s approach is not only inconsistent with official U.S. policy – it is directly causing it to backfire. 

At the G20 summit, Xi Jinping declared that the Western liberal order has failed. Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan said that power is shifting eastwards. This trend can be attributed to a number of factors, but the U.S.’s incoherent diplomatic strategy (thanks to the unilateral threats made by the president) plays a huge role. If Trump understood India’s geopolitical context or valued the long-term relationship between India and the U.S., he would rely less on Twitter and more on tact. Diplomacy requires compromise, dialogue, and engagement, and the president’s current mode of behavior denies all three. Strain between Trump and Modi is likely to translate into long-term deterioration in the U.S.-India relationship.

Aditi Bhaduri

See author's posts