Who in the Middle East wants war? No one, really
By Aditi BhaduriNone of America’s Middle East allies would want a war to break out in the region, even as they would like to see Iran weakened. Sanctions may slowly but surely weaken Iran from within but its military is battle hardened, and its proxies active in Lebanon and Yemen.
As the popular Chinese saying goes, it is better to have a good neighbour than a brother far off. Against a backdrop of escalating crisis in the Middle East – between Iran and the US, this saying may be reverberating in the Gulf and beyond in the region.
Iran has been in the crosshairs of the US and its Middle Eastern allies – Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Israel – for decades now. While the world welcomed the JCPOA in 2015, America’s Mideast allies have consistently lobbied for the deal to be rescinded and sanctions re-imposed on Iran; they did not find the deal firm enough and would allow Iran to continue with its nuclear weapons program after a passage of time. With its backing of the Syrian regime, arming Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen where they show no sign of backing down, and its growing influence in neighbouring Iraq, Iran seemed to be going from strength to strength, consolidating the Shi’ite arc across the region. Removal of sanctions allowed it to start selling oil in the international market and economically engage with the international community.
President Donald Trump now seems to do what former US ambassadors, including President Barak Obama, would have wanted to but had backed out from – taking on Iran. He has pulled out of the JCPOA re-imposed sanctions on Iran, ceased waivers for other countries friendly to the US, like Japan, South Korea, India, and is now threatening Iran militarily, after despatching troops, naval carriers and bombers to the region.
Tehran’s regional diplomatic outreach and entreaties with the EU to save the nuclear deal has ot payed any dividends. Now it has threatened to resume uranium enrichment beyond acceptable levels if the EU is unable to save the deal by July, 8, inviting rebuke by European powers. There have been attacks on oil installations in the UAE and Saudi Arabia, for which these countries and the US hold Iran accountable. Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz through which an estimated one third of the world’s sea borne oil passes, as well as all the LNG pipelines from Qatar, something that would be an economic catastrophe for the world.
Last week on Thursday, June 20, it shot down a US surveillance drone which it said had entered Iranian airspace, a claim denied by Washington which said the aircraft was above international waters.
The following day President Trump ordered strikes against Iran but called them off at the last moment, saying such an attack would not have been a proportionate one. Instead the United States is reported to have launched cyber attacks against Iranian missile control systems and a spy network in retaliation for the drone incident. Tehran denies this.
On Sunday at a joint press conference with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Jerusalem, US National Security advisor John Bolton said that Trump would announce fresh sanctions on Iran on Monday.
Meanwhile US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo flew down to Riyadh, and then visited UAE to try and flesh a ‘global coalition’ to protect the Strait of Hormuz and all the shipping lines in the gulf, Trump has indeed announced fresh sanctions, which this time target the leadership of the country beginning with the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, his office and all those close to him.
Yet, between all these warnings and threats, it seems no one in the Middle East really wants a war. Inside Israel strategists have long warned that if the US were to attack Iran the latter in retaliation would strike Israel. Israeli energy minister Yuval Steinitz had almost a month ago said, as the Israeli media reported, that “Iran may fire rockets at Israel” in case of war with US, just as Iraq had done during the 1991 Gulf War.
None of America’s Middle East allies would want a war to break out in the region, even as they would like to see Iran weakened. Sanctions may slowly but surely weaken Iran from within but its military is battle hardened, and its proxies active in Lebanon and Yemen.
If Hezbollah and Iranian military advisors have contributed significantly to keep President Bashar al Assad in power in Syria and to defang the Syrian rebels and ISIS (with Russia), then Hezbollah had also made sure in the last war with Israel in 2006 that there were no victors. Israel will not wish to face a similar situation all over again now. Israeli strategists, while wishing for a weak Iran, have been speaking out against war.
In spite of US and British backing the Saudi-led coalition’s war in Yemen – now in its fourth year – it shows no signs of winding down soon any time The coalition is caught in a quagmire without any honorable exit strategy. If anything the Iran-backed Houthis against whom the coalition is waging the warn seems to be more defiant than ever, staging a drone attack on Saudi Arabia’s Abha civilian airport which wounded 26 and killed one person. They have threatened even harsher action. The militaries of the US’s gulf allies are not battle hardened enough and cannot afford to open another front.
Iran is being weakened from inside, but it is united in the face of an external threat. . The country still has a strong military, ballistic and cruise missiles, and strong air defence systems, is battle hardened with years of experience and rides high on its national identity.
None of America’s Middle Eastern allies would want to be in the line of fire, even if Trump was to oblige. Moreover, with Jared Kushner’s peace plan for the Middle East seeming to collapse, Israel will be challenged with another bout of agitation amongst the Palestinians, while protests have already broken out in many parts of the Arab world. Therefore calls for negotiations keep alternating with threats from all sides.
Furthermore, Gulf states like Qatar and Oman have not joined in the chorus of threats to Iran.
UAE Minister for State for foreign affairs Anwar Gargash took to twitter to say that “Tensions in the Gulf can only be addressed politically” and requires “collective attention, primarily to de-escalate and to find political solutions through dialogue and negotiations”. Saudi minister of state for foreign affairs Adel al-Jubeir in an interview to Le Monde newspaper said the kingdom was committed to working with its allies to stop Iran’s “aggressive” behaviour, but said Riyadh did not want to go to war with it.
Trump also wants to avoid war as he seeks re-election, wants to keep oil prices down, and tries to find an honourable exit for US troops from Afghanistan, while settling Iraq, where the fight against the Islamic State continues.
Iran too, for all its bravado, also does not want war. The earlier sanctions have hurt its economy and the regime of the ayatollahs is under internal pressure. The recent sanctions have been squeezing it too, halving oil exports to one million barrels per day from a peak of 2.8 million in 2018. Last Sunday, Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman Abbas Mousavi was quoted by Iranian news agency as saying “We welcome diffusion of tensions in the region. We do not want rise of tensions.”
No doubt all in the Middle East would rather the proverbial good neighbours.
The fresh set of sanctions targeting the Supreme Leader and his office and its circle is sure to further weaken the regime, while curtailing it’s economic capacity to support and sustain its proxies in the region. But it will also drive Iran decisively closer to Russia and China.
