Modi Government’s Foreign Policy 2.0: Priorities and Challenges

The National Democratic Alliance ( NDA) led by the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) has won the 2019 Parliamentary elections in India with a massive mandate for the second consecutive term. The victory is being attributed to Prime Minister Narendra Modi who was at the centre of national campaign and in fact turned the elections around to make it look like a Presidential election, with the Prime Minister poised on one side and between PM Modi on one end and the entire but fragmented Opposition on the other.
What impact, if any, will the resounding victory of PM Modi’s elections have on India’ s foreign policy ? What are the likely priorities and challenges for the Modi government in its second term?

The prime minister is no stranger to the international arena. During his first term (2014-19) he acted as a hands-on de-facto Foreign Minister. He invested considerable time and energy in shaping the country’s foreign policy. He visited around one hundred countries across the world; some of them were first-ever visits by an Indian prime minister whereas in the case of some others had been there were gaps from ten to sixty years. The outreach was unprecedented and truly global. Modi displayed a great deal of determination to reinvigorate dormant relationships and explore all possible new vistas of cooperation. The integration of political and economic diplomacy resulted in Diplomacy For Development. The emphasis was thus on both: continuity as well as change.

Foreign policy has rarely, if ever, influenced the outcome of elections in India. No wonder, therefore, that it did not figure in the 2019 election campaigns either. However, the BJP 2019 Manifesto, and some of the official announcements soon after the election results, combined with intelligent guess, do provide some important clues to the likely priorities of and challenges for the new Government in the conduct of international relations. It looks like at this moment that there will be overall continuity in foreign policy with required adjustments, and the emphasis will be on the un-finished agenda.

In South Asia, by available indications, the new government does not intend to help revive the stalled SAARC Summit level meetings (which it had boycotted in 2016 in the backdrop of continued state patronage and sponsorship of cross-border terrorism by Pakistan). Instead, it will focus on promotion of sub-regional cooperation through intra-regional mechanisms (e.g. BBIN Motor Vehicles Agreement) in which only some out of eight SAARC countries will participate in projects of mutual interest. More importance will be given to intra-regional cooperation between selected members of SAARC and ASEAN, namely, the Bay of Bengal Initiative For Multi-Sectorial Technical Cooperation (BIMSTEC), side-lining Pakistan or for that matter any other unwilling Member. A clear signal to this effect was given when India invited BIMSTEC leaders at the Outreach Meet during the BRICS Summit it hosted in Goa in 2016. And now, unlike in 2014, when Heads of State/Government from SAARC countries were invited for the swearing-in-ceremony, the invitation for the 2019 Swearing-in-Ceremony has been extended to HoD/HoS of BIMSTEC member countries. Interestingly, the announcement by the Ministry of External Affairs says that “the invitation is in line with Government’s focus on its ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy”. Do we thus have a new definition of “neighbourhood”? Or was the invitation is designed with the dual objective of placing BIMSTEC above SAARC and thereby automatically excluding Pakistan. Possibly both.

India is unlikely to take any suo-moto initiative to resume dialogue with Pakistan unless it undertakes some visible and genuine steps to reign in anti-India cross-border terrorism from its soil and stops interference in Kashmir. Responding to the Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan’s message of congratulations and his desire to work with  Modi “for peace, progress, and prosperity in South Asia,” Modi “stressed that creating trust and an environment free of violence and terrorism were essential for fostering cooperation for peace, progress and prosperity in our region”.  The Modi Government is thus unlikely to change its policy that “Terror and Talks” cannot go together. It would be interesting to watch as to how PM Modi and PM Imran Khan interact at the forthcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO)O Summit mid-June this year.

Further, the new government’s effort will be on countering and containing China’s growing influence in its neighbourhood. The choice of Sri Lanka and Maldives as possibly the first foreign destinations that the prime minister will visit in his second tenure, if true, will indeed be appropriate and obvious in the context of expressing solidarity with Sri Lanka after the Easter Sunday terror attacks and as also a neighbouring country where China has made significant inroads, and in the context of the Maldives given that the current Maldivian Government’s willingness to reverse its policy of close links with China. India would be wise to use to its advantage the increasing realization amongst some of the neighbouring countries about the pit-falls of China’s “debt-trap” policy and advantages of India’s non-prescriptive development assistance.

Under the Act East policy, India’s priority would be to accelerate the connectivity of its North East with South East Asia. It will remain committed to play an important role in the Indo-Pacific in partnership with the USA, Japan, Australia (QUAD) and other ASEAN/ East Asian countries in order to counter the expansionist designs of China, particularly in the South China Sea. India has repeatedly vouched for freedom of navigation in the South China Sea, and in its pre-election manifesto, the BJP has stated explicitly that it would pursue vigorously to “ensure an open, inclusive, prosperous, and secure Indo-Pacific”.

International terrorism and money laundering will continue to remain high on the agenda of the new government. Realizing that the negotiations on the Draft Comprehensive Convention on International Terrorism (CCIT) are heading nowhere , the Modi government has plans to build a “Comity of Nations Against International Terrorism” as a voluntary multilateral forum based on the principles of CCIT to combat international terrorism. In an implied reference to Pakistan the Manifesto 2019 declared India’s commitment to take all possible steps at international forums to isolate such countries and organizations which support terrorism. India is likely to continue to lobby so that Pakistan was moved from the “grey” to “black list of Financial Action Task Force (FATA). The new government will be expected to expedite the extradition of economic offenders such as Vijay Malaya, Neerav Modi, etc.

In his previous term, PM Modi had invited China to join hands with India to ensure that the 21st century belonged to Asia. The subsequent developments (such as the 73-days long Doklam face-off between Indian and Chinese troops in (2017), India’s opposition to China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) project, India’s partnership in anti-China QUAD, China’s obstructions in India’s quest for the Nuclear Suppliers’ Group (NSG) membership and repeated technical objections to Masood Azhar’s designation as international terrorist etc.), however, did not augur well for India-China relations. The challenge now is to sustain the so-called “Wuhan Spirit” emerging from the informal summit between PM Modi and President Xi Jinping in  April, 2018, the thrust of which is to build upon the areas of convergence while handling the differences through peaceful discussion (in a wise and matured manner) within the context of the overall relationship, bearing in mind the importance of respecting each other’s sensitivities, concerns and aspirations. In other words, no one single issue or irritant is to be allowed to adversely affect the overall relationship.

Stable relations with leading powers such as Russia, USA, Japan are in India’s interests particularly in the context of sourcing raw materials, modern technology, investments, sophisticated weapons, joint ventures to meet the requirements of inclusive domestic development and success of programmes such as Make in India, Smart Cities, Skill India, and for the modernization of infrastructure.  The challenge would be to steer clear of the on-going conflicts, for instance between the USA and Russia and Iran and USA, the China-US trade war resulting in particular in a sanctions regime (like CAATSA) which is to the disadvantage of India.

The prime minister will soon have an opportunity in June this year to renew his face to face contacts with President Putin and President Xi Jinping at the SCO Summit and President Trump and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe at G-20 Summit.

The Middle East is likely to continue to engage India’s attention, both for energy needs and for the substantial revenue from the large Indian diaspora there. Iran is important for energy needs and connectivity through its Chabahar Port.

Central Asia and Africa as well as the Indian Ocean Rim Cooperation countries are likely to remain on India’s radar. The new government would like to ensure that the momentum generated in the past five years is not lost.

The launching of the International Solar Alliance was one of the major initiatives in 2015; the new government is now contemplating to create an ‘International Space Technology Alliance’ as part of its plans to encourage knowledge exchange and transfer of technology.

India is a politically stable country and its economy is steady. As a large market India is an attractive destination for foreign investments, joint ventures, commodity exports. India’s stature in international affairs has arguably grown considerably in recent years. The current leadership is of the opinion that India’s time has come. A certain degree of assertiveness in foreign affairs was visible even during the past five years, when India appeared to punch according to its weight. India is now bound to ensure that it plays an increasingly important role in shaping the global agenda, that it is part of the “rule making” rather than “rule following” and that it emerges as a strong pole in the multi-polar world.

(The author is a retired diplomat)

Aditi Bhaduri

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