The Bilateral, Regional and Global Dimensions of Sino-Russian relations
China and Russia are seeking to act as key players to promote the narratives of emerging economies on issues of security and development
By Achal Malhotra
Relations between the former USSR and contemporary Russian federation and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) have seen several highs and lows in the past seven decades to reach the current levels often described as “axis of convenience”. Historically, the process of bilateral ties began on a positive note after the proclamation of PRC on 2nd October, 1949, and its recognition by the USSR the following day. In February, 1950, the two sides concluded a Treaty on Friendship, Alliance and Mutual Assistance. The Soviet Union extended considerable technical and economic assistance to China. The initial bonhomie between the two communist nations, however, lasted just for a decade as cracks begin to appear due to multiple factors including ideological differences, personality clashes, competition for control of international communist movements and border disputes, leading to military clashes in 1969.
Post-Soviet relations
The attempts during the second half of eighties by the Soviet leader Gorbachev and his Chinese counterparts to restore full normalcy in relations were overtaken by the demise of the Soviet Union end 1991.
In the post-Soviet period, Russia and China have registered an incremental growth in their relations; the beginning was made by the Russian President Boris Yeltsin though his visit to China in December 1992 when “Joint Statement on the Foundation of Mutual Relations between the People’s Republic of China and the Russian Federation” was signed, laying the basic principles for the development of friendly relations between the two countries. However, it was President Putin who put the relations on fast track reciprocated adequately by the Chinese leadership.
Since the signing of the “Treaty of Good-Neighbourliness and Friendly Cooperation” in 2001, the relations have evolved to reach by 2019 a “comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination for new era” and covers a wide range of spheres for the promotion of bilateral ties, besides adopting a coordinated approach on regional and global issues.
Pull and push factors for strengthening bilateral relations
Both pull and push factors were instrumental in bringing the two countries on the same platform. The pull factor is clearly visible in bilateral relations. Having agreed to respect each other’s right to pursue political and socio-economic systems of their own choice, they have focussed during the last two decades on complementing and supplementing each other’s material needs. The two-way trade has crossed $100bn mark to reach over $ 108 billion in 2018, with no serious issues of balance of trade. Energy has emerged as one of the key sectors which offers a win-win situation for the two countries. Russia is now the largest supplier of crude oil and natural gas to meet energy-deficient China’s growing demands; this has helped both Russia and China to diversify their partners in energy sector. New pipelines are being planned to supplement the existing Eastern Siberia-Pacific Ocean pipeline to transfer energy resources to China. Russia and China have also agreed to construction of four nuclear power plants in China.
The two nuclear powers have more or less resolved their border disputes and have assured each other that they will not be the first to use nuclear weapons against each other nor target strategic nuclear missiles against each other. Infrastructure projects, particularly cross-river bridges have been built/are in advanced stage of construction to enhance connectivity. Cooperation in defence sector is also on ascendency reflected in Russia’s defence supplies, joint ventures( such as Heavy Helicopters) and joint military exercises.
Harbingers of a new global order
As a parallel stream, China and Russia are seeking to act as key players in regional organisations such as SCO and BRICS; they also coordinate their positions at global forums such as UN and G-20. The stated objective is to promote the narratives of emerging economies on issues of security and development such as terrorism, ethnic separatism, religious extremism, reforms of institutions of global governance, protectionism, globalisation, multi-polar world. The real objective is to play a vital role in shaping the global agenda and writing the international rules rather than being governed, guided or dictated by the West led by the USA.
The New Development Bank is the BRICS alternative to World Bank and IMF etc. and its objective is to mobilize resources for infrastructure and sustainable development projects in BRICS and other emerging economies as well as developing countries, which fail to enlist support from the West-dominated international financial institutes and mechanisms.
Pressure from the West
The pressure from the West particularly the US and EU on Russia and China is the push factor and responsible for a situation when China and Russia are now working both separately and together to curb the US influence in political, economic and security domains. President Putin’s aggression in countering EU and NATO’s Eastwards expansion in its backyard and recognition of Kosovo’s independence was an important factor in Russia-Georgia war and Russia’s recognition of the independence of Georgia’s two breakaway regions- Abkhazia and South Ossetia – in 2008 and later Russia’s annexation of Crimea in Ukraine. (Georgia is committed to its complete integration with Euro-Atlantic structures; Both Georgia and Ukraine have been promised NATO membership at an unspecified date.) The West’s response was to impose crippling economic sanctions on Russia.
The US and China have been at loggerheads for some time now. Besides trade war on bilateral front, the US is engaged in promoting a sort of US-Japan-Australia-India alliance (QUAD) to check China’s alleged expansionist policies in South China Sea and Indo-pacific ocean. Of late, the anti-China sentiment is gaining strength globally in the wake of its perceived role in the spread of Covid-19 pandemic, and its alleged attempts to derive economic benefits by acquiring distressed assets overseas while the rest of the world is fighting a war against the corona virus originating from China. As part of the campaign, several countries have announced measures in particular to weaken China’s economy and thereby check its global aspirations.
In the backdrop of mounting tensions between India and China, caused by the bloody face-off on Line of Actual Control( LAC) in which 20 Indian soldiers and unspecified number of Chinese soldiers were killed ( 15th June, 2020), a popular campaign- “Boycott China” – is gaining strength in India. The Indian government, which a short-while ago had amended its Foreign Direct Investment Rules to exercise stricter control over Chinese investments in the country, has announced cancellation of contracts and ban on a large number of Chinese Apps.
Meanwhile, Russia remains under economic sanctions.
Is a Russia-China alliance inevitable?
If the current trends persist, the Russia-China axis is likely to grow stronger, and may even develop into a formal alliance. It can act on the one hand as a balancing force vis-à-vis US and its allies and promote multi-polarity in world affairs. At the same time, the axis between the two veto-wielding powers can add to global tensions and confrontations and lead to a bipolar world in which Russia+ China and allies pitted against US and allies. This scenario must be avoided.
In order to ensure global stability and promote multi-polarity, all major players will need to make adjustments. The US-led West should consider being more sensitive to Russia’s sensitivities in latter’s neighbourhood and must review its policy of punishment through economic sanctions and use this weapon more judiciously. China must exercise restrain over its expansionist designs through territorial claims and economic enslavement of smaller countries through “debt trap” diplomacy. Russia must learn to live with ground realities and consider diluting its insistence on the former Soviet space being its natural sphere of influence and let the neighbourhood choose its partners. The nuclear countries must sit together and accelerate the processes towards complete verifiable disarmament in a time –bound manner, and thus fulfil their obligations under the NPT. Sounds ideal? If yes, let it be so!
In Asia, from India’s perspective, the Russia-China nexus can be a source of concern if Russia decides to divert from its existing position of neutrality between India and China in favour of China. Seems unlikely at this moment. India and China must resolve their differences soonest possible as continued tensions between the two will not only affect their bilateral ties but will also have an adverse fall-out for the regional and even global stability, besides impacting the smooth functioning of the SCO and BRICS.
