What Modi’s Kyiv visit tell us about India’s position on the Ukraine conflict
Currently, Modi is one of the few global leaders who can talk simultaneously to Putin, Biden, and Zelensky, and this visit is proof of it
By Aditi Bhaduri
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi paid a historical visit to Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital on 23rd August. It was the first ever visit by an Indian Prime Minister since the two countries established diplomatic ties in 1992. The visit came against the backdrop of the Russian Ukraine conflict, which in recent days has escalated with a significant Ukrainian counter-offsnsive in Russia’s Kursk region and multiple drone attacks on Moscow, duly repelled by Russia’s air defense systems. Last month Modi had visited Moscow, in his first bilateral visit since assuming office for a third time, where he was warmly feted by Russian President Vladimir Putin,
Modi’s Kyiv visit is believed to be a balancing act. India shares a special and privileged strategic partnership with Russia. The latter still remains India’s largest defense supplier, has not condemned what Russia calls it “special military operations” in Ukraine; has refused to vote for any anti-Russian resolution in the United Nations, or to adhere to any of the many sanctions imposed on Russia by the West. India has particularly benefitted from the sale of discounted Russian crude with the latter emerging its largest crude oil supplier currently.
Modi’s Moscow visit, at a time when the NATO summit was being convened in Washington, was particularly criticized by the US as well as by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Ukraine has been reaching out to India, with foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba visiting Delhi in March, to solicit support for its position in the conflict. It is in this context that Modi’s visit assumes particular salience: what can India do to resolve the conflict, which has resulted in tens of thousands of casualties and displaced millions.
India’s position on the Ukraine conflict
India has not endorsed Russia’s military operations in Ukraine, and on multiple occasions both Modi and his External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar have reiterated calls for talks and a diplomatic negotiated way to peace. In his first meeting with Putin since the war began, on the sidelines of the SCO summit in Samarkand in September 2022, Modi had said that this was “not an era of war” and had called for diplomatic means for conflict resolution. Even in Moscow last month during the televised segment of talks Modi told Putin that “solutions are not possible on the battleground” and Moscow and Kyiv should resolve their conflict through dialogue and diplomacy. “For restoration of peace, India is ready to cooperate in all ways…….. India is in favour of peace…..”
Simultaneously, Delhi has kept channels of communication open with Kyiv too. Modi has met with Zelensky on a number of occasions, most recently in June this year in Italy on the sidelines of the G7 summit. India has sent humanitarian aid to Ukraine. It has also participated in all the international conferences, on the Ukraine crisis, most recently in Switzerland. Though India did not sign the final Communique, its participation substantiated its genuine interest in exploring the different pathways to end the conflict.
Currently, Modi is one of the few global leaders who can talk simultaneously to Putin, Biden, and Zelensky, and this visit is proof of it. Modi arrived in Kyiv on a special train from Poland after a 10 hours long journey. He was greeted by Ukraine’s First Deputy Prime Minister. In Kyiv, after his customary hug to Zelensky, Modi visited a memorial to Ukrainian children, who have lost their lives in the Russia-Ukraine war. He placed a doll at a memorial.
Together with Zelenskyy, he also finalised multiple agreements on agriculture, food industry, medical product regulation, and cultural cooperation. If there were any defense agreements, they have not been made available in the public domain.
A major highlight of Modi’s Ukrain visit was the presentation of BHISHM cubes—part of the Bharat Health Initiative for Sahyog Hita and Maitri (BHISHM)—which have been designed to provide trauma care. Ten such cubes, developed under Project Aarogya Maitri, were officially handed over to Ukraine by India. They contain 22 tonnes of medical support equipment and ten generator sets, were handed over.
What can Modi’s visit achieve?
In spite of their strong criticism of Modi’s Moscow visit, the US, and even Zelensky for that matter, have conceded that Modi’s strong equation with Putin give India leverage to act as peacemaker India’s purchaseof Russian oil is another lever, as these sales are indispensable to keepthe Russian economy running. The European Union has, earlier, also called upon India to act to bring an end tothe conflict.
This certainly gives India an edge over others like China, which has floated its own peace formula on Ukraine but which has found no takers in the West. Interestingly, even some Russian commentators do not find anything achievable in it.
Following Modi’s visit John Kirby, the coordinator for strategic communications authentication White House National Security Council said ” If Modi’s trip to Kyiv and meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky can help move the needle towards an end-of-conflict scenario that is consistent with the Ukrainian leader’s vision, then we think that would be helpful..” stressing that Modi was a “strong and good partner” for Washington.
Soon after on Monday, 26th August US President Joe Biden called up Modi where they discussed the Ukraine conflict, amongst other things. Modi posted on his X account that he “reiterated India’s full support for early return of peace and stability. The White House in 8ts statement said that Biden commended Modi’s recent visit to Poland and Ukraine, and both leaders expressed “support for a peaceful resolution of the conflict in accordance with international law, on the basis of the UN Charter.”
Russia’s Response to Modi’s Kyiv Visit
Initially, Russia seemed to have responded to the visit with understanding. Russian analysts noted that in their long years of partnership India has never let down Russia in the international arena, even hinting that India may produce a draft initiative of its own at the upcoming BRICS summit in Kazan in October.
Russian state media kept up steady reportage of Modi’s Ukraine visit. Following the visit, analysts underscored that the visit would be unable to play any significant role in conflict resolution, pointing to the new Ukrainian attacks and incursion into Russia’s Kursk region, where Ukraine continues to hold territory.
The Russian Deputy Foreign Minister also met with the Indian Ambassador in Moscow to explain Russia’s position on the conflict and negotiations with Ukraine.
Following Ukrainian attack on Russia, Putin said talks with those who “indiscriminately attacks civilians, civilian infrastructure, or tries to create threats to nuclear energy facilities” is impossible. However, his aide Yuri Ushakov later clarified that Putin’s earlier conditions for a ceasefire and talks, which included, inter alia, a full Ukrainian withdrawal from “new” Russian territories, (Russia claims in entirety the region’s of Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia), an official pledge by Kyiv to not join NATO and to undertake demilitarization and de-nazification, and to adopt a neutral, non-bloc, and non-nuclear status, and for sanctions against Russia to be revoked, still stood but currently Russia wouldn’t talk to Kyiv, given its on-going “aventurism’.
Meanwhile, Ukraine wants a total Russian withdrawal from them, ahd is even on the offensive. In a further escalation of the conflict Russia has responded to Kyiv’s incursions into Russian territory with an all out drone and missiles attacks on multiple places.
Against this backdrop and a day after Bidens call with Modi, Putin called up Modi and f7rther discussed the current state of the conflict. While Modi briefed him on his visit Ukraine visit, Putin underscored his position: about the destructive politics of the authorities in Kyiv and their Western patrons.
What Next?
Ahead of his trip to Poland and Kyiv, Modi announced on X that he will “share perspectives on the peaceful resolution of the ongoing Ukraine conflict……….As a friend and partner, we hope for an early return of peace and stability in the region.”
“India is willing to provide all possible support and contribution required to help find peaceful solutions to this complex issue and …… it is not for us to anticipate or prejudge what the outcome of these discussions will be……,” the Ministry of External Affairs has said, while ruling out any mediation in the conflict.
Indeed, India has played a constructive role in the conflict on a number of occasions. It had mediated the Black Sea grains deal as also the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant safety deal between the two sides, as was later made known by External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar. The US has also acknowledged that it was because of countries like India and China that a possible nuclear catastrophe was averted. In this context, Modi’s Kyiv visit is just a matter of course. And there could have been no other timing than soon after visiting Moscow.
Ukrainian analysts and policy makers have hailed the visit as something extremely significant, especially for bilateral ties. However, they remain cognizant of the fact that it is NATO which holds the main key. While Modi is understood to have made the visit to “understand” the Ukrainian position, there may be a divergence between what Ukraine expects from India and what India is prepared to do to seek an end to the conflict.
Following the visit Zelensky held a press conference for the visiting Indian media. The reports from it have not been flattering of Modi’s visit. In particular, Zelensky stressed 9n India’s purchase of Russian oil. India and China have emerged the biggest buyers of Russian crude, which throws the Russian economy an invaluable lifeline.
While urging India to play a bigger role in resolution of the conflict, Zelensky proposed that India could host the next peace summit on Ukraine. Switzerland had hosted the first in June this year, but to which Russia had not been invited. Russia had called the summit illogical and futile. Zelensky’s proposal, however, had a rider attached to it. He called on India to sign the Communique of the Swiss conference. India, along with a number of countries had refrained from s8gning the Communique, considering it to be a unilateral document, which had among other things, called for Ukrainian control over the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, freedom of navigation through the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, and exchange of prisoners. It is difficult to envisage India signing on to the document now.
As it stands matters have become far more complicated than when Modi planned his historical visit to Kyiv. As Indian strategic thinkers have repeatedly said the Ukraine conflict is a European war. It is essentially a face off between Ukraine and NATO on one hand, and Russia, backed by China on the other. India, like many other countries of the Global South, is caught in the middle. It must take care that a foreign wad does not encroach on its interests. With his visit to Ukraine, Modi has proved that India is truly batting for nothing but peace. It is in India’s interest that the conflict ends soon, before it is further pushed to pick a side. India has done well to visit Ukraine and to offer its willingness to do all it can to get the conflicting sides to the negotiating table. It us great potential, for instance, to host 5he next peace summit in Ukraine. But without preconditions imposed on it, and without unilateral decisions by one or the other side.
Modi’s participation in the upcoming BRICS summit in Kazan, someth8ng he is said to have told Putin dur8ng their call, would be the next logical step in this direction: a statement about its strategic autonomy and its impartiality in the conflict.
