Who is Iran’s new President?
The assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on the day immediately following the swearing in of Pezeshkian may be an ominious sign.
By Aditi Bhaduri
Iran has a new President. On July 30th, Dr. Masoud Pezeshkian, who won the presidential ele tons in a run-off, was officially sworn into office. The mid-term electionswere held following the tragic death of President Ibrahim Raisi and his foreign minister Abdolahein in a plane crash in April this year.
The election of ‘reformist’ Massoud Pezeshkian as President of Iran has surprised everyone. After all,his predecessor Raisi, a sworn hardliner had been elected following the end of a term of similar “reformist ” and liberal president Hassan Rouhani.
So what expla8ns the election of another “reformist” now?
The answer lies in the brutal handling of the “Mahasa Amini” case by the short-lived administration of the now late Raisi. The death of Amini, in police custody where she had been held without trial, for protesting against the hijab, generated nation wide, often violent and even unprecedented protests by civilians, especially by women and youth. A brutal police crackdown resulted in the deaths of hundreds of Iranians, even more were arrested, all under Raisi’s watch.
As it is Iran has been periodically wracked by protests as the theocratic reg8me finds its hold on society being increasingly challenged. Along with this Iranians are also feeling the pinch 9f continuing US sanctions. In fact, it was then President Donald Trump ‘s decision to pull out from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) , more popularly known as the Iran nuclear deal, that had been painstakingly negotiated by Rouhani, and reimpose sanctions on Iran, that paved the way for a more hardline Raisi to power.
Raisi pivoted to the East – consolidating ties with China and Russia. Under him, Iran began military cooperation with Russia, supplying it with drones for its operations in Ukraine. Iran has also resumed some activities related to its nuclear program in response to the US reject8ngthe JCPOA. Once the Hamas-Israel war broke out, the worldalso watched the astonishingsight of iran launching direct albeit limited strikes on Israel, when it’s diplomatic premises in Damascus were targeted in what is widely believed to be an Israli attack.
Yet, Pezeshkian’s election is also is aloud and clear message that irrespective of its enmity with the US and Israel, and irrespective of the sanctions, Iranians want a change at least in their internal polity and society, and more personal freedoms.
Pezeshkian belongs to the ‘reformist’ camp. A former heart surgeon, who served in the government of President Mohammad Khatami as health minister, Pezeshkian has earned the respect of many Iranians by his simple and modest lifestyle.
So what can we expect from the new president?
Constitutionally, the president is the second most powerful person in Iran. He won over his opponent Jalili, in a runoff, in which voter turnout was significantly higher. Pezeshkian promised unity and cohesion to voters. So if he can forge consensus between different institutions he can kick-start several initiatives.
Domestically, he will be expected to take a more liberal course than his predecessor. He has promised to settle the hijab policy and ensure greater freedom for women. He had also called for national unity. This would allow more individual freedom and a liberal dress code, especially for women. There may be an opening for the flow of more information, communication, and Foreign broadcasts, as well as social media. We may expect an amnesty or something similar for the scores of detainees connected to the Mahsa Amini protests.
In his foreign policy, Pezeshkian’s administration seems to have begun by stepping into a minefield. The assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on the day immediately following the swearing in of Pezeshkian may be an ominious sign. Israel has sent a message loud and clear to Iran – it has the will and capability to strike its targets in the heart of Tehran. This complicates matters as Iran will be under pressure, not only by Iranians or Palestinians, but by much of the Muslim world to respond to such an act on its territory.
Otherwise too, Pezeshkian will have to chart the course laid down by his predecessor. This is because in Iran foreign policy is not the preserve of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs alone, it also often involves the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), while the ultimate decision-making authority lies with the Supreme Leader.
Thus we would continue to see Iran consolidating its ties with its eastern partners and its position within groupings like the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation which it joined last year, and the BRICS – which it joined this year. Its support for Shiite militias across West Asia will also definitely continue, at least for now.
With the Western world, however, Pezeshkian ‘s election opens up an avenue. He has promised to restart negotiations on the Iran nuclear deal, which was suspended two years ago, as well as to get the sanctions against Iran revoked. As a liberal and reformist it would be of utmost urgency to find a breakthrough with the US before the presidential elections. Iran has been holding secret talks with the US over the nuclear deal since Raisi’s regime.
Pezeshkian will seek to continue with them. For this, his domestic support would be useful and a convergence of different Iranian institutions. This should be for him both a priority and the most important task. For the US too it opens up an opportunity as a potential Trump reelection may once again jeopardize negotiations.
For India, Pezeshkian’s election can only be positive. India and Iran share ancient and civilizational ties, and bilateral ties have endured irrespective of whichever party or president has been in power in either country. India and Iran, still under Raisi’s Presidency, signed the landmark Chabahar Port deal for a historic 10 years!
It showed that while US sanctions on Iran have hamstrung India’s engagement with it, India has not recognized these unilateral sanctions and is determined to forge ties with the country. A reformist Pezeshkian can now only energize bilateral relations. Liberalization of society, whether in the dress code or the free flow of information, can only further enhance bilateral ties, as hardliners will be kept in check and serve as a model for India’s communities that share close cultural and religious ties with Iran. If a breakthrough with the US can be reached on Iran’s nuclear deal and sanctions lifted, then it could give an impetus and further deepen the India-Iran bilateral trade and economic relations.
