Expert: “Xi’s visit aimed to drive a wedge into critical areas within European Union”
Dr Bruno Surdel is a Senior Fellow at the Centre for International Relations in Warsaw, Poland, and also serves as a lecturer. He has previously held academic positions in Turkey and Nigeria, and had conducted research in China. His expertise encompasses international security, climate diplomacy, and the issue of water scarcity as a source of both internal and international conflicts. Dr Surdel is the author of numerous articles and is a regular commentator on radio and television. He spoke to IAR on Chinese President Xi Jingping’s recent trip to France, Serbia, and Hungary and on China-European Union relations
What was the objective of Xi jinpings trip to Europe.
Chinese leader Xi Jinping visited countries in Europe where he is most favourably received, encompassing not only economic but also strategic issues. His visit aimed to drive a wedge into critical areas within European Union (EU). French President Emmanuel Macron, evoking the foreign policy of de Gaulle, seeks to diminish the USA’s role in Europe, aspiring to elevate the European Union to a strategic power alongside the USA and China. Yet, he remains keen on maintaining trade with China. President Xi also visited another EU member state, Hungary. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is balancing Brussels with Beijing while maintaining amicable relations with Moscow, partly due to energy considerations. Hungary’s openness to China is also yielding investments in new technologies pertinent to Europe’s energy transition. Orbán believes that such policies will enhance Hungary’s position, a small country consistently at odds with the elites in Brussels. Another destination, Serbia, maintains good relations with Moscow for historical reasons—traditional, cultural, and strategic proximity to Russia. Serbian President Vučić, much like Hungary, is navigating between major powers. Do not forget that the USA and a significant part of the EU nations recognise Kosovo as an independent state. The visit wasn’t solely about investments. On the other hand, Serbia may one day join the European Union, and by that time, China aims to establish a strong foothold in this Balkan country.
What have China and EU achieved from this trip?
The European Union is increasingly wary of China, noting its economic rise, ties with Russia despite the war in Ukraine, and Chinese exports to Europe. European nations are concerned about balancing imports from China with exports to it. Additionally, there are fears that as Europe moves away from energy dependency on Moscow and transitions to greener energy, it could become more reliant on China. Since the early 2000s, Beijing has heavily invested in producing components for wind turbines, solar panels, and batteries. Now, Beijing is a powerhouse in these sectors, including electric vehicle manufacturing, raising concerns within Europe. However, the EU’s policy towards Beijing is not uniform, and Xi Jinping is exploiting this. His visit to France also served to signal to the entire EU that Beijing wishes to maintain good trade relations with Europe—hence the meeting with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Yet, both parties are less inclined towards concessions than before. This is also a result of the trade and strategic rivalry with the USA and – as I’ve mentioned – Beijing’s close ties with Moscow. France’s ambition to make Europe a global power on par with the USA and China is somewhat unrealistic, posing both an opportunity for Beijing and an obstacle for more flexibility from Brussels and Paris.
What role does EU want China to play in the Ukraine War and what do you think China will do?
The European Union is urging Beijing to take a more assertive stance in ending the Russian-Ukrainian war, to exert greater pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin, and not to support Moscow militarily in any way. However, it is in China’s interest to weaken all competitors—collectively the West, the USA, Europe, but also Russia. It’s part of a grand strategic game calculated over decades. China’s strategic culture involves outmanoeuvring adversaries without military conflict, even if it takes years or decades.
How do you see future China-EU relations pan out?
China values trade with Europe, and the European Union is also keen to maintain economic relations with Beijing. This is particularly vital for Germany, a powerhouse of industry and export, and France as well. However, bilateral relations are likely not to be as open and cordial as they were a decade ago. We are in different times, a new global order is emerging where every big player wants to secure the largest possible slice of the pie.
