War, Peace, and Everything In Between: Will India’s Position on Ukraine Change?|
The visit, on an invitation by External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar, also comes at a time of heightened tensions between Russia and the West following the Crocus City Hall terror attacks near Moscow which has killed at least 140 and injured many more.
By Aditi Bhaduri
He came, he saw, he spoke, but any conqueris improbable. The two-day recent visit of Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba to India on 28-29 March is certainly significant. He is the first high-ranking Ukrainian official to visit Delhi since Russia began what it calls “special military operations” in Ukraine in February 2022. The visit, on an invitation by External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, also comes at atimeof heightened tensions between Russia and the West following the Crocus City Hall terror attacks near Mos ow which has killed at least 140 and injured many more.
Kuleba’s main objective was to solicit India’s support for Ukraine’s peace plan and an upcoming peace conference in Switzerland, dates for which have yet to be announced. He has also pitched for *ndian investments in Ukraine and resumption of trade ties.
“In New Delhi, I had sincere and comprehensive talks with @DrSJaishankar about Ukrainian-Indian bilateral relations, the situation in our regions, and global security,” he wrote on “X”. “We paid specific attention to the Peace Formula and next steps on the path of its implementation. We also co-chaired the Ukrainian-Indian intergovernmental commission review meeting and agreed to restore the level of cooperation between our countries that existed prior to the full-scale war launched by Russia, as well as identify new promising projects to take our relations to the next level.”
Will Kuleba’s Comments Affect India-Russia Ties?
While India is trying to balance its proximity with Russia vis-a-vis its Ukraine outreach, it remains to be seen how successful Kuleba’s visit turns out to be. Trade and investments are sure to get back on track for both sides.
“Pleased to co-chair the review meeting of our Inter-Governmental Commission with FM @DmytroKuleba of Ukraine,” Jaishankar wrote on his X account. “Noted the importance of further strengthening cooperation in all domains. Our immediate goal is to get trade back to earlier levels. Perspectives on trade, health, S&T and agriculture cooperation shared today were useful. We agreed to prepare for the 7th IGC meeting later this year.”
However, this will not help to wean India away from its longtime pal Russia. In an interview to Financial Times the minister was quoted as saying: “The co-operation between India and Russia is largely based on the Soviet legacy. But this is not the legacy that will be kept for centuries; it is a legacy that is evaporating.” While it is understandable why Kuleba said it, it is a limited reading of the India Russia partnership.
What Comprises Ukraine’s peace plan?
Russia remains India’s largest defense supplier till now and possibly its most trusted friend in the UN Security Council. Apart from cooperation in myriad fields, from nuclear technology to space, trade volumes have this padt year reached unprecedented levels between both countries, thanks to discounted Russian crude oil.
The Minister’s other warning – that close Sino-Russian relations constitutes a threat to India – is precisely another reason why India seeks to maintain close ties with Russia. But beyond these wishes, will the visit achieve its other objectives – primarily support for Ukraine’s peace formula?
First, let us see what constitutes the peace formula.
In October 2022, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced to the G7 leaders a “peace formula” . These include radiation and nuclear safety, including Russian withdrawal from the Zaparozhiya nuclear power plant; food security; energy security; release of prisoners and deportees; restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity and 1991 borders; cessation of hostilities and withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukrainian territory; justice and trial for war crimes; protection of the environment; prevention of conflict escalation; and confirmation of the end of war.
While points on food security and release of prisoners and deportees are well taken, the stumbling bloc in this proposal is the restoration Ukraine’s territorial integrity. Whatever hope may be pinned to lands occupied by Russian forces post February 2022, it is hard to envisage Crimea being returned to Ukraine. The region seems to have seamlessly integrated into the Russian Federation over the decade since 2014, when Russia incorporated it within its territory. Moreover, given Russia’s military upperhand in the conflict and an increasingly weakening Ukraine, entirely dependent on foreign arms, it is difficult to envisage that even the Donbas region reverting back to Ukraine. Clauses like cessation of hostilities and non-escalation of the conflict will require Russian participation in negotiations in equal measure, though Russia has not been invited yet to the planned conference.
How Ukrainian Legislature Complicates Matters
In an interview to Russian media outlet “Izvestia” on 28 March – the day Kuleba landed in Delhi – Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov called the peace formula ‘diplomatically ‘diplomatically insane “formula”‘.
What complicates such peace plans further is the October 2022 Ukrainian decree banning any talks with Russia under presidency of Vladimir Putin. Given the recent landslide victory of Putin at Russia’s presidential polls and his reelection, this decree remains a non-starter for peace talks. In the same interview Lavrov said “A few words about Zelensky’s executive order on a ban of talks with the Government of Vladimir Putin. Our President has repeatedly spoken about our readiness to start serious talks. But to become convinced that these will be serious talks (or at least there is a hope for this), he told Kiev’s Western patrons that Zelensky must first cancel this executive order.”
India will be mindful of these nuances and Russian sensibilities and may seek to persuade Ukraine along these lines.
What should be India’s Plan of Action?
India should, however, attend the peace conference in Switzerland, if and when it occurs. India hss always proclaimed its neutrality in this conflict, and time and again called for dialoge and discussions as the only way forward. It has coordinated the “grains deal” earlier brokered by Turkey, on occasions also played “messenger” between sides, as the External Affairs Minister recently said at an event in Malaysia, and even played a role in averting any possible nuclear strikes by Russia on Ukrainian facilities.
India has attended all international talks on Ukraine, beginning from the one in Copenhagen, to the ones in Jeddah, Malta, and more recently Davos. It will give India a window to both Ukraine and the West and position it as a more neutral enabler of conflict resolution if the opportunity arises.
This article appeared in The Quint
