US-Maldives Defense Agreement: New Dynamics of Indo-Pacific in South Asia
By Adithyan Nair
The Secretary for State of the United States Michael Pompeo recently concluded a trip to South and South East Asia. It included a stop in Male, the capital of the Maldives, on October 28. In Male Pompeo made the historic announcement that the US would open its very first diplomatic representation in the island nation with a resident Ambassador. “Your role in the Indo-Pacific and the international community is increasingly important and my country wants to remain a good partner to a sovereign, democratic and prosperous Maldives. Having an embassy here will help us do just that,” Pompeo said, standing alongside his Maldavian counterpart Abdulla Shahid. This is reflective of the fast growing ties between the US and the Maldives, a major component of the changing dynamics of the Indo-Pacific region.
Pompeo’s visit to the Maldives came a little more than a month after the Government of Maldives has signed a defense agreement with the USA on September 10th 2020 in Philadelphia, USA. The two countries were represented by the Maldivian Defence Minister Mariya Didi and the US side was represented by U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defence for South and Southeast Asia, Reed Werner. In an immediate press release organized by the US Deputy of Defense, it was stated that the Framework sets forth both countries intent to deepen engagement and cooperation in support of maintaining peace and security in the Indian Ocean, and marked an important step forward in the defense partnership.
DASD Werner and Minister Didi also discussed U.S. support for the Maldives’ response to COVID-19 and areas for future cooperation, and agreed to work toward scheduling the first Defense and Security Dialogue. Both sides reiterated their commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific that promotes the security and prosperity of all nations in the region. This new defense agreement is a further advancement of USA and India’s attempt to counter China’s Belt and Road Initiative with its Indo-Pacific strategy. Through its economic rise in recent years India has become a leader of “Indo-Pacific Strategy” among emerging economies. The defense agreement was met with India’s support.
India and the US have emerged the major players in the Indo-Pacific strategy. The US-Maldives relation is a key relationship for the US because Maldives is necessary for the US to implement its Indo-Pacific strategy. The Malé-Washington agreement indicates that the US is diversifying the locations of its military presence in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). For the US, which thus far did not have a formal security agreement with the Maldives, the pact enables shoring up of US presence and commitment not only in the wider Indo-Pacific but also in the more active seas of the IOR. Additionally, the US-Maldives defence agreement not only sets out to counteract this outreach and influence China hopes to achieve in the IOR, but also re-establishes the US’ predominance in the region.
On the other hand, Maldives is equally important for China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) project due to its geostrategic location in the Indian Ocean. Chinese policymakers, academics, and media commentators have recently highlighted the need for China to participate actively in the Indian Ocean and develop a robust relationship with Maldives in order to protect its resource flows and position itself for power transition in the region. China expert Prof. Srikanth Kondapalli has long argued that China’s relations with Maldives are expanding and that this is reflected in high-level visits, the provision of aid and loans, the construction of infrastructure projects like the strategic iHavan project, the expansion of tourism, and the conclusion of a free trade agreement.
Majority of the South Asian states are trapped in the debt diplomacy of China, and Maldives is no exception; official Maldavian debt to China is estimated to be $1.4 billion. As a result, China’s hold on many countries of South Asia is more powerful in comparison with the United States.
Apart from China and USA, India as a regional power of South Asia has direct concern over Maldives political and strategic movements. This defence agreement, which has been in the works for nearly a decade, was rumoured to have been scuttled at New Delhi’s behest in 2014 by the then Maldivian President, Yameen. However, Yameen’s keen willingness to sign onto China’s BRI in 2014 raised a few questions. It was his embrace of Beijing that irked New Delhi; until recently, Maldives and Sri Lanka had been considered as being in India’s security and strategic sphere of influence.
Thus, it is important to understand how New Delhi views the US-Maldives defense agreement from the Indian perspective.
The Maldives-US defence agreement is crucial for the Indo-Pacific region because peace and security in the Indo-Pacific and Indian Ocean region is tied to the best interests of both countries. The new defence agreement can also be viewed as a breaker in China’s String of Pearls Policy. The “Chinese string of pearls” theory which has evolved over the last two decades is related to Beijing’s vast economic and trade expansion and the resulting need for geostrategic security of the maritime routes and “choke points”. Each “pearl” represents a specific port project on the Indian Ocean coastline. Connecting these ports would create a chain of hubs, serving as economic centers or military and surveillance outposts for the Chinese army. China needs Maldives to complete its String of Pearls policy. With Maldives on US’s side, they have a foothold on the door that leads to the breakage in China’s String of Pearls policy.
From an Indian perspective, this US-Maldives deal is advantageous because even though India has no interest in downgrading its own security role in the Indian Ocean, in the current situation New Delhi’s main focus is to limit Beijing’s power and influence in South Asia. Encouraging and supporting this deal is one of India’s initial step towards limiting China’s power. This deal also provides India with an indirect route to involve themselves in Maldivian security matters as lately India’s direct involvement in Maldivian security matters has been viewed with suspicion. New Delhi has traditionally been wary of American dominance in the region. India had opposed the American base at Diego Garcia, an Indian Ocean island territory claimed by Mauritius. In 2013, the US had proposed signing a Status of Forces Agreement with the Maldives, which was eventually shelved by the Maldives government in the face of Indian disapproval.
In the past decade, there has been a tussle for power in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), with several countries vying for influence in the maritime space. India’s own bilateral relations with the US have expanded into a strategic partnership with the conclusion of several defence and security agreements. Just a day before Pompeo visited Maldives he was in New Delhi to attend the 2+2 ministerial dialogue with Delhi, during which time the BECA Agreement (Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement for Geo-Spatial Cooperation) was signed between the two sides.
Increasing convergences in their global strategic interests have led to widening cooperation between India and the US on a range of security challenges, ranging from terrorism, piracy, maritime security to disaster relief. As an important power in America’s Indo-Pacific concept, American actions are no longer viewed in India through the same prism as before.
The Chinese port in Sri Lanka (Hambantota port) has kept India worrying for a long time. India has been concerned that China may make a military presence at Hambantota, located on a key sea international shipping route. However, with a new government sworn in in Colombo Sri Lanka has already declared that they are adopting an ‘India first approach’. This means that Sri Lanka will not do anything harmful to India’s strategic security interests. This, together with significant influence – both diplomatic and military in the Maldives – signals a big win for India.
The current government of Ibrahim Solih in Male has reversed the previous government’s pro-China tilt and has announced that it was returning to an ‘India First’ policy in the neighbourhood. This will allow India ample opportunity to increase its maritime surveillance to counter Chinese presence at Hambantota Port in Sri Lanka. After carefully examining the current situation, it is yet to be seen if the bold Maldivian decision can result in other BRI supporting countries in the region to change sides and sign deals that align with the interests of the US. The power play game amongst the three countries is tense and if this continues then we might be able to witness a new dynamic in the Indo-Pacific region which could possibly result in a direct standoff where countries would have to choose between China’s BRI or the US’s Indo-Pacific Strategy.
