What has caused the sudden flaresup between Armenia and Azerbaijan?
Tensions have been on the rise for weeks. In mid-summer Armenia and Azerbaijan engaged in clashes. There was no diplomatic follow up to pacify the situation along the frontlines. Since the advent of Covid-19 there has been a lack of proactive international mediation, even following the deadly clashes in July. No shuttle diplomacy, no calls to the leadership in Baku and Yerevan. Meanwhile, incidents along the frontlines intensified with regular reports of casualties among the military.
We saw heated rhetoric and calls on their public’s to prepare for war days before this large-scale and well-prepared attack took place.
Some are calling the current military standoff between the two countries the beginning of a proxy war. How far is that true?
Not true at all. The developments in the conflict zone demonstrate that the fighting has so far been between the Armenian and Azerbaijani troops. Turkey supports Azerbaijan. Russia has a role of mediator and does not take a one-sided position in support of Armenia.
Armenia has a defense alliance with Russia. How do you evaluate Russia’s role in the conflict?
Russia has been the lead mediator between the sides for years. It made proposals to the sides in the past, but the peace talks still failed. Russia brokered ceasefire between the sides in the past. After the battles of 2016, Dmitry Medvedev, who served as the prime minister of Russia, flew to Yerevan and Baku, and the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry Sergei Lavrov carried out shuttle diplomacy between the two capitals. But in recent weeks before escalation, Russia did not pay the region the attention it received before. It was precisely the lack of reaction to the July escalation that opened the way for large-scale hostilities. We have not seen attempts to bring the leaders to the negotiating table and have not seen visits by high-ranking officials.
All eyes are now on Moscow to see if it can again stop the fighting in the conflict zone.
A ceasefire may soon be in place. What would it take for a resolution of the conflict?
I am afraid the ceasefire is not coming any time soon. Baku refuses to return to talks and wants to reach it’s primary goal – return of territories in the conflict zone to it’s direct control – through military means. For Yerevan declaration of a unilateral Ceasefceasefire is suicidal and it will not happen.
We are likely not to see the ceasefire till one of the sides or both of them are not exhausted with the fighting.
[It’s a] very large-scale escalation that has a potential to turn to the regional scale and drag in one of the regional powers – Turkey or Russia – or both of them.
Can you explain the legal status of Nagorno-Karabakh?
Nagorno-Karabakh declared it’s Independence from Azerbaijan in early 1990s. Since then it has it’s own government, economy, conducts elections and has a vibrant domestic political life. The entity has not received recognition of any UN member–states. There are some other partially recognised or unrecognized entities that have bilateral relations with Nagorno-Karabakh. [It is] important to note that the region received recognition from a number of the US states, although legally speaking Washington DC still considers Nagorno-Karabakh as a breakaway region of Azerbaijan.
