India’s GDP to decline by 10 per cent in FY21, say experts
Most ratings agencies and economists had projected contraction in India’s GDP for the first quarter of 2020-21.
By PTI
India’s economy may shrink by around 10 per cent in the current fiscal due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, experts said.
India’s GDP shrank by the steepest ever 23.9 per cent in the April-June period as the coronavirus lockdowns battered an already slowing economy, official data showed on Monday. Icra’s Principal Economist Aditi Nayar said, “As expected, GDP (Gross Domestic Product) and GVA (Gross Value Added) plunged precipitously in the lockdown-ridden quarter of Q1 FY2021, both printing similar to our forecast of a 25 per cent contraction. Moreover, incoming data on the MSME and less formal sectors could manifest in a deeper contraction when revised data is released subsequently.”
“With infections continuing to climb and some states extending local lockdowns further, we maintain our forecast that the Indian economy will contract by 9.5 per cent in FY2021,” she added.
Sankar Chakraborti, Group CEO, Acuite Ratings and Research, said, “GDP would continue to contract in Q2 although the extent of such contraction would be substantially lower; overall in FY21, a 10 per cent contraction is a definite possibility given the slow pace of the revival.” The government had imposed a nationwide lockdown from March 25, 2020 to curb the spread of COVID-19 infections. The Centre began easing the lockdown for certain economic activities from April 20 onwards.
Most ratings agencies and economists had projected contraction in India’s GDP for the first quarter of 2020-21.
According to health ministry data, the novel coronavirus tally in India crossed 36 lakh on Monday with 78,512 new cases, while the number of recoveries surged to 27,74,801, pushing the recovery rate to 76.62 p
