What Trump’s policy towards Kurds portend for Israel
Today, the US is actively abandoning a critical and now longtime ally. Many in Israel are wondering if we are next.
Photo: Reuters
By Eitan Charnoff & Ksenia Svetlova
After a lack of response to direct Iranian attacks on US aircraft, global shipping and Saudi oil facilities, the US under President Donald Trump is now actively disengaging from the region to everyone’s detriment. The US and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have fought successfully together for years against the Islamic State group (ISIS). Trump’s overnight abandonment of the Kurds to their powerful nemesis Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan should have everyone in Israel’s government concerned that Israel will soon experience the same from Trump.
Needless to say, the Kurds are not only strategic allies of Israel and the US but also share common values, a rarity in a region full of radical Islamist and autocratic brutality.
The US military presence in Syrian Kurdistan was perhaps the most cost-effective projection of American power, with limited cost in lives, in recent history. With only about 1,000 US troops supporting a critical ally, the US has successfully quashed ISIS, prevented Syrian President Bashar al-Assad from claiming control over all of Syria, halted Iranian hegemony and limited Russian and Turkish ambitions.
The SDF bore the brunt of the war against ISIS in Syria having lost roughly 11,000 fighters. Israel, many Arab states, and the western world at large owe the brave warriors of the SDF a debt of gratitude for their efforts in curtailing ISIS.
Turkey’s stated objective is to dislodge the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) from border areas, but Ankara’s real plan might be to divide the Kurdish region in Syria and prevent a contiguous geographic area controlled by Kurds in Iraq and Syria that stretches from Iran’s border to the Mediterranean.
Another objective for Turkey is likely demographic change in Syrian Kurdistan by bringing Syrian Sunni Arab refugees, who have been living in Turkey, to newly-occupied Kurdish areas in Syria such as Serekaniye and Tel Abyad. Turkey has already taken similar measures after the occupation of Afrin in March 2018.
Russia, Turkey, Assad, Iran and even the splinter remnants of ISIS all have their eyes focused on the Kurdish region of Syria. Although they all have competing goals, they do all agree that step one is the removal of the US guardianship over the area.
Likely detrimental outcomes of a US withdrawal from Syrian Kurdistan range from Turkey cementing its role to dictate its will to its neighbours and Russia – filling the inevitable void – could act as the sole reliable mediator and guarantor of security in the region. A recent Russian delegation to Saudi Arabia is a clear indication of their intentions to do the same in the Gulf as well. Additionally, Assad can secure geographic control over all of Syria and Iran can further advance its foothold in a critical state bordering Israel.
It is even plausible that at the recent trilateral meeting between Iran, Russia and Turkey in September, Turkey’s goal of convincing Trump to look the other way was mutually agreed upon in advance.
Unfortunately, at least for the two authors of this piece, Trump’s sudden abandonment of the Syrian Kurds comes as no surprise. While some, including our prime minister, have fallen under Trump’s spell, many have not. Isolationist rhetoric about ending foreign wars and rash on-the-stop decision making which blindsides his staff and large governmental institutions have been warning signs of unreliability at the very least.
We believe it is unrealistic that Turkey will conquer all of Syrian Kurdistan but harassing air raids and limited incursions could potentially break the SDF’s will and ability to resist. This has of course already begun with attacks commenced by Turkey on Kurdish targets on October 9, 2019, within a day of Trump’s announcement. If truly deserted, the Kurds could be forced to turn to Russia, Assad and Iran to bring a halt to the Turkish aggression.
Today, the US is actively abandoning a critical and now longtime ally. Many in Israel are wondering if we are next.
Two courses of action should be taken immediately: Firstly Israel, the Kurds and moderate Sunni States should increase collaboration in the face of an increasingly unreliable Washington. Secondly, there is still time to reverse course. Israel, the moderate Sunnis and bipartisan leaders in the US should aggressively call for a reversal of White House policy, pressuring the Trump administration to revert to the status quo, placing US special forces back into Humvees with their Kurdish counterparts, with whom they have already jointly fought a brutal battle against ISIS and the forces that seek to destroy the Kurds and the west together.
We don’t know what the future holds but Israel should monitor the developments in the Kurdish region closely, as our fates are now more interconnected than ever.
(Eitan Charnoff is a former Israeli Military officer and business consultant with experience across the Middle East. Eitan has advised the Israeli Parliamentary Caucus on Kurdish Affairs and has organized many meetings and collaborations between Kurdish and Israeli entities.
Ksenia Svetlova is a senior research fellow at the Institute for Policy and Strategy at the Interdisciplinary Center, Herzliya. Ksenia served as a member of the Israeli Knesset (Parliament) (2015-2019) and chaired and founded a Parliamentary caucus on Kurdish Affairs.)
(The article originally appeared here)
