Fear and Longing in Afghanistan
The peace negotiations will be resumed after the Afghan elections are over and till such time the US will launch air strikes and military operations against the Taliban, whose leadership currently has been significantly weakened
By Shershah Nawabi
As recently US President Donald Trump put an end to the 9 months long peace negotiations with Taliban, the prospect for a peace deal in Afghanistan seems more than ever difficult. Now the environment of peaceful end of Afghan conflict have changed dramatically and now it seems that Afghanistan is once again on the frontlines of prolonged bloodshed. According to reports currently Taliban have made their new commitments. Mohammad Suhail Shaheen said to Anadolu a Turkish news agency that Taliban is willing to have their freedom in the negotiations table and as well as in the battle fields. Meanwhile Taliban have announced that they have sent a four-member delegation to Iran to seek the support of Taliban allies for pressurizing the US to sign the finalized peace deal. According to the agreement which was finalized among Taliban and the US delegation, the American forces must withdraw from Afghanistan, and only after this would they sit with the Afghan side and begun Intra-Afghan Peace Talks.
The conditions on the ground now show that the peace negotiations will be resumed after the Afghan elections are over and till that time US will probably be launch air strikes and also massive operations against the Taliban. Currently the Taliban leadership have been weakened across Afghanistan. Their major commanders in several p,have been killed,especially in Baghlan, Kunduz, Badakhshan, Helmand and even their leadership in Kabul have been targeted. Meanwhile the US is looking to pressure Pakistan to deny safe havens to the Taliban on its soil. At the same time the US is willing to have a deal with the new government that will take charge in Afghanistan which is expected to take place sometime in October and probably this would pave the way for the stationing of US forces for the long term in Afghanistan.
From the economic perspective currently all allies of the Afghan government have shown their commitment once again for the development of Afghanistsan. As a key stakeholder India has also shored up it’s commitments toward the Afghan government and they are willing to support Afghanistan in terms of economic development and reconstruction.
Meanwhile once again the NATO secretary general in a phone conversation with President Ashraf Ghani has stated that once again NATO will remain fully committed to the training, advising, and assisting of the Afghanistan National Security and Defense Forces to maintain their power against the terrorists. So this issue shows that once again the international community is willing to invest more in Afghanistan and also at the same time a it wants a peaceful resolution for the current war but this peace would be conditional and Taliban must join the government. The international community has proven that currently there is zero tolerance for the loss of any of the gains that Afghanistan has achieved over the last 20 years.
In terms of holding elections, Afghanistan is now a once again back on track, with campaigning having resumed again. The electoral campaigns are ongoing and in the next 10 days we will have elections and the Afghans are preparating to go to the voting centers to cast their ballot in a hard won democracy. So as I see we will have the peace deal between US, Taliban and the Afghan government but not in the way that the Taliban were expecting it to go, posing and planning for their own Islamic Emirate. The group will come to a peace deal and in all probability they will have some seatss in the government. It seems that in the next government the Taliban will have some ministers in charge of departments like the ministry of justice and also the judiciary system. Meanwhile Taliban have launched their attacks like the one targeting president Ghani’s election process to generate fear in the population to try and prevent the elections from taking place and lsoi don’t expect them to adhere to any ceasefire. So in the upcoming 10 days Afghanistan will be entering one of the most critical and pivotal phases in its history,s one full of all kinds of threats.
(The author is founder and CEO of Pasbanan Media Group)
