Crafting an Indian response to Pakistan
Prof. K.N. PanditaIt should not be impossible to think of creating another trade and communication-related entity to come up on the pattern of BIMSTEC with India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Iran as its permanent members, and with an almost identical agenda as of the Bay of Bengal Initiative.
Photo: Representational Image: iStock)
Days ahead of the parliamentary election in our country, Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan remarked in a press briefing that with a right-wing government in New Delhi chances for the resumption of Indo-Pak talks would brighten. As such, the landslide victory of BJP and Narendra Modi – led government would be a consolation for Imran peaceniks in Pakistan. He believes that a right-wing government in New Delhi is tactically placed better to restart a meaningful talk with his government. Modi with a thumping majority in the parliament is better placed now than ever before to restart the talks.
The political and economic scenario in the sub-continent is going through a notable change. Pakistan is struggling to wriggle out of the financial predicament. She It has approached various funding sources to help her overcome a financial crunch. Her Its good friends like the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have extended a helping hand but international lending agencies generally attach conditions that are not easy to accept.
India, not much different from Pakistan in geographical or environmental terms, is one of the fast-growing economies currently. Her experiment would not be without merit for Pakistan’s financial and economic planners. After all no country would like to survive on doles from friends and sympathizers howsoever sincere , simply because an independent economy is the key to political sovereignty. Eventually, the two countries shall have to develop a just and mutually beneficial trade mechanism that promises to boost of the all-round prosperity of two major countries in the region. sub-continental countries. It is unfortunate that Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK) side has failed to understand the significance of this confidence building measure (CBM) and has allowed selfish traders to misuse the cross-Line of Control (LoC) trade option in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) that was assiduously built by the leadership of the two countries in 2008. This entire exercise is now tied down to a host of conditionalities springing from a syndrome of suspicion and mistrust. Sincere efforts have to be made to put the system back on the track.
Of late, Pakistan has begun to feel the brunt of a wrong and dangerous policy of patronizing extremists at home as auxiliaries. The justification for this misadventure, according to her its military planners, is to create the first line of resistance to any aggression as a response to the perceived military threat from her eastern neighbour. Pakistan’s lament that she it is a victim of terrorism would have cut ice with many western powers If they were not convinced that Pakistan was home to many extremist organizations with suicide bombers operating in the neighbouring countries of Afghanistan and India.
If external pressures have forced Pakistan to change the-decade-old terror game with ramifications beyond her borders to the east and the west, India could cash in on it but should do so with caution and patience. The Pakistani media has papers reported that some small measures have been taken in the name of containing home-grown terror. Maybe Imran Khan is in a more comfortable position of dealing with the hawks in the civilian as well as in the military establishment in that country. However, to think that the financial crisis would force the Islamabad administration to scale down its traditional acrimony against India is unrealistic. Developing states are prone to financial somersaults and that is not a very disturbing or permanent phenomenon.
In the aftermath of the Balakote operation, the level of cross-border infiltration in J&K has come down . It has weakened the operative capability of the underground terrorist cadres in Kashmir. Pakistan did not respond to India’s repeated demands of stopping infiltration of jihadis from across the border in Kashmir. Had Pakistan responded positively, perhaps Indian security forces would not have opted for the Operation All Out. The essential purpose of this operation is to create space for talks with Pakistan.
Modi has declared that one of the primary components of his government’s foreign policy is that of establishing cordial relations with India’s immediate neighbours. This is usually among the fundamentals of the foreign policy of a big and strong country. Not inviting Pak Prime Minister to the swearing in ceremony of Narendra Modi is not to be construed as something akin to discourtesy or isolating Pakistan from South Asian fraternity. BIMSTEC, the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation is an international organization of seven nations of South Asia and South East Asia, housing 1.5 billion people and having a combined gross domestic product of $3.5 trillion (2018). The BIMSTEC member states are among the countries dependent on the Bay of Bengal. The inclusion of Pakistan in this organization could be possible at a future time as was the case with its inclusion in the China sponsored Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), facilitated by its all weather friend China.
It should not be impossible to think of creating another trade and communication-related entity to come up on the pattern of BIMSTEC with India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Iran as its permanent members, and with an almost identical agenda as of the Bay of Bengal Initiative. An entity of this kind could lend support to the establishment of peace in the region. Stakeholders are in regular consultation over the situation in Afghanistan. It is becoming clear now that regional powers, Pakistan, India, and Iran have to be taken on board as an interface among primary stakeholders in Afghan peace talk proceeds.
Imran Khan promises that his government will not allow the soil of his country to be used by extremists against a neighbouring country. Pakistani media has come out with the news that at least 12 centers of training of anti-India jihadis, meaning infiltrators into Kashmir, have been closed down. A few ground realities are now established. Pakistan is a key figure in finding a lasting solution to the Afghan problem. India remains a crucial factor in the economic and educational development of Afghanistan and Iran is a partner in this process.
The Kashmir issue has bedevilled the two neighbouring countries for the last seven decades. No solution to the dispute is in sight. The fact is that India has always been on the horns of a dilemma as to whether a civilian government in Pakistan including an elected one has the real freedom to talk and act on the Kashmir resolution. In the case of Imran Khan, the general belief in political circles is that there is an understanding of sorts between the army and the PM. An understanding between the two does not necessarily mean an understanding pertaining to the Kashmir dispute. Nevertheless, the Modi government should explore the possibility of talking to the Pakistan army through a proxy and examine to what extent the current situation in the subcontinent would be effective in motivating the Pakistani army for a deal with New Delhi.
(The writer is a former Founder-Director of Centre of Central Asian Studies, University of Kashmir. He was awarded the President’s Certificate of Merit in 1994, and the Padma Shree in 2017. His latest publication Ten Studies in Kashmir History and Politics was released by the Vice President of India on 13 May 2019)
