Maldives Returns to ‘India First’ policy

In the last year of its governance the Modi government can claim a foreign policy triumph in its Neighbourhood First policy – in renewed ties with the Maldives. While the Neighbourhood First policy started with a bang it seems to be ending with the proverbial whimper. Relations with Pakistan are in shambles with cross-border having peaked in the last months of the incumbent government and strikes and counter-strikes making for unflattering optics for India, uncertainty over Afghanistan looms large like never before, Nepal and Sri Lanka seem to be drawing closer in the Chinese embrace, and Bhutan seems to be following a wait and watch policy after the Doklam standoff in 2017.

Against this backdrop the newly elected government of President Ibrahim Solih and the restoration of democracy in the Maldives bodes well for India. After all, Maldives looms large on India’s strategic radar, located at a mere 700 kms from India’s Lakshwadeep islands, located along major sea lanes in the Indian Ocean through which much of the world’s trade, especially energy supplies from the Gulf, flows.

And India had watched with despair as under the former dictator Abdulla Yameen it slid steadily into chaos. Yameen had rendered the Maldivian Parliament irrelevant; had convicted the former pro-India President Nasheed on terror charges, sacked the Chief Justice and anther judge of the Supreme Court. Under his watch, corruption reached unprecedented heights and religious radicalism expanded in the hundred per cent Muslim country; many Maldivian youth flocked to the jihad in Syria, and Maldives national debt has ballooned to almost $ 3 billion (by most estimates). Along with all this Yameen also pitched for closer ties to China, while simultaneously weakening the close linkages that the island nation had hitherto shared with India.

Seizing the opportunity, Prime Minister Modi flew to Male to attend the swearing in ceremony of the new president Solih. Maldives had been the only SAARC country left unvisited by the Prime Minister because of its internal turmoil there. In Male as Modi pledged India’s unwavering support and cooperation for Maldives’ sustained development, Solihsignalled that Maldives would revert to its India First policy, based on the recognition of the bilateral aid and assistance that India had been providing over the years to the island nation, which had also included military intervention to thwart a coup by Tamil militants there.

In an equally symbolic gesture, President Solih visited India – his first state visit to any country – exactly a month since his swearing in. He was accompanied by a large delegation, and an equally large delegation comprising numerous senior cabinet members visited Delhi few days prior to that, looking to promote Indian trade and investment in Maldives which had received a great setback under the Yameen regime when ties with India had been drastically downsized.

In Delhi, Modi reiterated India’s ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy and ‘all possible support to Maldives in realising its aspirations for socio-economic development”, promising financial assistance worth $1.4 billion to the nation reeling under a massive debt, along with numerous other commitments for training and capacity building, including the Maldives Police Service and National Defence Force. In turn Solih reiterated Maldives’ commitment to the traditional ‘India First’ policy that his government would follow. Encouraging though these developments have been all may not be smooth sailing as yet for India.

Under Abdulla Yameen’s rule, the Maldives had received massive Chinese investments for major infrastructure projects and also signed a free trade agreement, which breezed through parliament within a mere ten minutes. The Laamu Atoll link road, for instance, was China’s gift to the island nation. Because of its strategic location, Maldives became important to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) project. By some estimates its debt to China for various infrastructure projects alone is around $2.5 billion. While the current Maldives government will be scrutinizing all deals signed under the previous government, it has also made it clear that it would not rescind any agreements signed with China, including the FTA. While a commission will be set up to look into charges of corruption and individual deals, and Maldives will seek to renegotiate its debt it will honour all agreements signed to protect the reputation of the government and country.

Meanwhile the Chinese ambassador to the Maldives Zhang Lizhong ha pegged the debt to China at $600 million with a 2 percent interest and a five year grace period, and dismissed claims of a ‘Chinese debt trap’. More recently the Chinese government honoured the Maldivian envoy to Beijing (along with envoys of a few other countries like Pakistan and Sri Lanka) with a special award for their contribution to the BRI project. China has invested massively in Maldives building infrastructure as part of its BRI project. IN turn Maldives was one of the first countries to sign up to the BRI. The Maldivian envoy to Beijing Mohamed Faisal is reported to have said that the Maldives has ‘high expectation’ from the BRI. It is thus clear that China is here to stay in the Maldives, which is an important stop on its coveted BRI and is making overtures to President Solih to hedge the investments it has made thus far.

India will thus have to contend that along with the return of Maldives’ ‘India First Policy’, China is there to stay too in the foreseeable future.

An edited version of this article appeared here

Aditi Bhaduri

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